News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/z9XcfuxLOx
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here: https://t.co/MZtBh88nOv https://t.co/hQgZB9T73q
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10CKUR https://t.co/9JVh6BsWa2
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/ZDuee58Abe
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/niJL2W2yXV
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/0rNbbrd58e
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/zPzJAxBJxt
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/uf6KEYTes5
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/reRmDe1Ksp https://t.co/gRjdVfbg66
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here: https://t.co/SQUCCYRCIk https://t.co/mLLGqYUygY
Australian Dollar May Fall vs Yen as RBA Bets, Charts Line Up

Australian Dollar May Fall vs Yen as RBA Bets, Charts Line Up

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

AUD/JPY TRADING Strategy: BEARISH

  • Bearish Engulfing candle pattern on AUD/JPY weekly chart hints at weakness
  • Deterioration in the RBA policy outlook offering sellers fundamental backing
  • Confirmation of a breakdown initially exposes support below the 74.00 figure

The Australian Dollar may be preparing to resume the downward trend guiding it lower against the Japanese Yen since mid-September 2017. The currency mounted a spirited recovery in the second half of 2019, lifting it off decade lows to retest pace-setting resistance.

A Bearish Engulfing weekly candlestick pattern at this barrier now suggests that a corrective rebound is coming to an end as the dominant bearish bias is re-asserted. Breaking below upward-slowing support in play since early August – now just below 75.00 – may add urgency to the case for weakness.

Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen price chart - weekly

AUD/JPY weekly chart created with TradingView

A dovish shift in the outlook for RBA monetary policy establishes the fundamental backdrop. A steep downshift in Australia-Japan 10-year government bond yield spread reflected a defensive pivot from the central bank. Tellingly, hopes for easing also lifted Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index.

The rebound in market-wide risk appetite in the fourth quarter encouraged carry trade demand and lifted AUD/JPY, but the underlying return stream has hardly improved. Indeed, the Aussie’s yield advantage now stands within a hair of multi-year lows set four months ago.

AUD/JPY versus S&P/ASX 200 stock index, Australian 10-year bond yield

AUD/JPY weekly chart created with TradingView

That may take center stage if sentiment falters. This is an ever-present concern as traders juggle a multitude of diverse risks, from the outcome of the US presidential election to swelling tensions in the Middle East and a worrying coronavirus outbreak.

Zooming into the daily chart for a timelier look, the 73.36-76 appears to mark initial support if the bounds of the near-term uptrend give way. On the topside, long-term trend resistance is reinforced by a horizontal barrier in the 76.16-55 zone that has capped gains since May.

Australian Dollar May Fall vs Yen as RBA Bets, Charts Line Up

AUD/JPY daily chart created with TradingView

AUD/JPY TRADER SENTIMENT

AUD/JPY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES