News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • A “PIP” – which stands for Point in Percentage - is the unit of measure used by forex traders to define the smallest change in value between two currencies. Learn how to understand pips in forex here: https://t.co/AfAhmI7kAV https://t.co/JiZPRZzwgo
  • RT @IGSquawk: Crypto update: #Bitcoin 56398.30 -7.34% #Ether 2213.91 -7.42% #BitcoinCash 925.49 -12.24% #EOS 6.8039 -15.98% #Stellar 0.5276…
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkzWwW https://t.co/rJUm1W9wrc
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZjVIG https://t.co/oZPoyPH2iw
  • Using margin in forex trading is a new concept for many traders, and one that is often misunderstood. Margin is the minimum amount of money required to place a leveraged trade and can be a useful risk management tool. Learn about margin trading here: https://t.co/qZCE5asCzM https://t.co/yN1I9FrfIS
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/5l3O9aHQbL https://t.co/DFEfCIl7zF
  • Thin liquidity can concentrate volatility and nowhere is that more evident than with Dogecoin. $DOGEUSD was down as much as 38% today. Watch for heightened bouts of volatility amid quiet risk trends in the week ahead: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/04/17/Dollar-Outlook-Ties-Into-Key-Data-Rate-Forecasts-and-Even-Dogecoins-Rally-.html https://t.co/JO7O7zUKe9
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZjVIG https://t.co/Vv3jZNbLWg
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkzWwW https://t.co/9j004hyzUZ
  • Learning how to trade does not have to feel foreign. Hone your skills and build your confidence with free DailyFX guides today! https://t.co/lnxaQOsgid https://t.co/7myL4vGnt8
EUR/USD Rate Outlook Undermined by Fears of US-EU Trade War

EUR/USD Rate Outlook Undermined by Fears of US-EU Trade War

David Song, Strategist

EUR/USD spiked to a fresh weekly high (1.1116) as the US ISM Non-Manufacturing survey narrowed more-than-expected in November, but the shift in US trade policy may undermine the recent rebound in the exchange rate as the Trump administration looks to raise tariffs on European goods.

The ongoing transition in US trade policy may have a greater influence on EUR/USD as the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announces that the Trump administration is “initiating a process to assess increasing the tariff rates and subjecting additional EU products to the tariffs.”

In response, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire warns that “the European Union would be ready to retaliate,” and growing tensions between the US and EU may drag on EUR/USD as it puts pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to further insulate the monetary union.

Nevertheless, the account of the October meeting indicates the ECB will retain the current policy at its last meeting for 2019 as Governing Council officials emphasized that “it was important to fully implement the September monetary policy decisions.”

Image of ECB interest rates

In turn, the ECB may merely attempt to buy time at its next meeting on December 12, but the central bank may continue to push monetary policy into uncharted territory in 2020 as the Governing Council struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability.

As a result, EUR/USD may face a more bearish fate going into the year ahead, and fears of a US-EU trade war may produce headwinds for the Euro as “the Governing Council continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner.”

EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of EUR/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

Keep in mind, the broader outlook for EUR/USD remains tilted to the downside as the exchange rate clears the May-low (1.1107) following the Federal Reserve rate cut in July, with Euro Dollar trading to a fresh yearly-low (1.0879) in October.

The recent correction in EUR/USD appears to have run its course as the advance from the yearly-low (1.0879) fails to produce a test of the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1190 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1220 (78.6% retracement).

The monthly opening range has been a key dynamic for EUR/USD so far in the fourth quarter as the exchange rate carved a major low on October 1, while the monthly high for November occurred during the first full week of the month.

In turn, the monthly opening range remains in focus, but the failed attempt to close above the 1.1100 (78.6% expansion) handle undermines the recent rebound in the exchange rate, with a move below 1.1040 (61.8% expansion) bringing the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0950 (100% expansion) to 1.0980 (78.6% retracement) on the radar as it lines up with the November low (1.0981).

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Additional Trading Resources

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 4Q 2019 Forecast for the Euro

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES