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Post-NFP EUR/USD Weakness to Persist Following Break of November-Low

Post-NFP EUR/USD Weakness to Persist Following Break of November-Low

David Song, Strategist

EUR/USD snaps the recent series of higher highs & lows following the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, and the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to track the bearish formation from earlier this year.

The above-forecast NFP print paired with the unexpected uptick in Average Hourly Earnings may keep EUR/USD under pressure ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on June 13 as it encourages the central bank to further normalize monetary policy over the coming months.The Federal Reserve may adopt a more hawkish tone in the second-half of 2018 as the central bank largely achieves its dual mandate for monetary policy, and a growing number of Fed officials may show a greater willingness to extend the hiking-cycleas Governor Lael Brainard warns that the benchmark interest rate may go ‘modestly beyond neutral.’

In turn, the fresh projections from Fed officials may ultimately boost the appeal of the U.S. dollar if the central bank adjust its forecast to reflect a steeper yield-curve, but more of the same from Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. may produce headwinds for the greenback especially as Fed Fund Futures continue to show limited expectations for four rate-hikes in 2018.

With that said, recent price action warns of a further decline in EUR/USD as it clears the November-low (1.1554), and the exchange rate may continue to give back the advance from the previous year as the bearish momentum persists. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups!

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Image of EURUSD daily chart

The recent rebound in EUR/USD appears to have stalled ahead of the 1.1790 (23.6% retracement) to 1.1810 (61.8% retracement) region, with the pair at risk of extending the decline from the previous month as it fails to retain the bullish sequence from earlier this week. As a result, the 2018-low (1.1510) comes on the radar, with the next region of interest coming in around 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1210 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1220 (78.6% retracement).

For more in-depth analysis, check out theQ2 Forecast for the Euro

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.