News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9Flsqcxo9 https://t.co/ltVTNO2sjT
  • GBP/USD clears the May low (1.3801) as the Federal Reserve forecasts two rate hikes for 2023. Get your $GBP market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/WdTG2niAKz https://t.co/2j02VyH0wm
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.36% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.60% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.91% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.96% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/HWVSmqaiYF
  • The amount of breakouts the #USD saw against its major peers this week was fairly impressive Lots of opportunities here for reversing dominant downtrends that have been prevailing for about 14-15 months Stay tuned for my USD weekly technical outlook coming out this weekend!
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.19% Silver: -0.41% Gold: -0.57% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/J6vFrm0Psb
  • Post-Fed, plunging commodity prices are weighing down growth-sensitive currencies like the Canadian Dollar. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/RwM9qu0Zjv https://t.co/u6WFpqfcdZ
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 85.22%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 70.57%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/O3dA4qOEid
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.14% FTSE 100: 0.09% Germany 30: 0.06% Wall Street: -0.02% US 500: -0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/MFEjkHP34f
  • Fed's Kashkari: Maximum employment means at the very least back to pre-COVID levels of employment
  • Fed's Kashkari: - I am opposed to rate hikes at least through 2023 - The labor market is still in a deep hole; it will take some time to get people reattached to the work force
EUR/USD Rate Outlook Hinges on Fed, ECB Comments as Rebound Falters

EUR/USD Rate Outlook Hinges on Fed, ECB Comments as Rebound Falters

David Song, Strategist

EUR/USD is back under pressure following a batch of positive data prints coming out of the U.S. economy, and the pair faces a renewed risk of making a run at the December-low (1.1718) as the bearish momentum from earlier this year appears to be reasserting itself.

Even though the economic docket remains fairly light for the remainder of the week, a slew of Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak over the coming days, and the fresh remarks may influence the near-term outlook for the euro-dollar exchange rate as the central bank appears to be on track to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months.

Image of Fed Fund Futures

The 2018-voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may strike a hawkish tone as the board largely achieves the dual mandate for monetary policy, and Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. may show a greater willingness to extend the hiking-cycle at the next quarter interest rate decision in June as ‘the Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate.’

European Central Bank (ECB) President Also on Tap to Speak

At the same time, remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi may generate headwinds for the single-currency as the Governing Council remains reluctant to alter the forward-guidance for monetary policy, and more of the same from the central bank head may fuel the recent weakness in EUR/USD as euro-area policymakers remain reluctant to move away from the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).

However, Fed officials may stick to the same tune as ‘inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term,’ and comments highlighting a greater tolerate for above-target price growth may drag on the greenback as it saps bets for four rate-hikes in 2018. Moreover, the Euro may catch a bid should ECB officials start to reveal a more detailed exit strategy, and a material shift in central bank rhetoric may spark increased volatility in the EUR/USD exchange rate as market participants prepare for the end of the easing-cycle. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups!

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Image of EURUSD daily chart

Failure to preserve the range from earlier this year dampens the broader outlook for EUR/USD, with the pair at risk for further losses especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) extends the bearish formation from earlier this year. Recent price action keeps the downside targets on the radar as euro-dollar snaps the bullish sequence from the previous week, while the bearish momentum appears to be reasserting itself as the RSI pushes back into oversold territory. The failed attempts to close above 1.1940 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1970 (23.% expansion) caps the near-term outlook for EUR/USD, with a break/close below the 1.1790 (23.6% retracement) to 1.1810 (61.8% retracement) raising the risk for a run at the December-low (1.1718).

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES