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AUD/JPY to Stage Larger Recovery on Strong Australia Employment Report

AUD/JPY to Stage Larger Recovery on Strong Australia Employment Report

2016-07-08 19:40:00
David Song, Strategist

The long-term outlook for AUD/JPY remains tilted to the downside as the pair largely preserves the bearish trend from 2014, but the aussie-yen may stage a larger recovery over the near-term should the key data prints coming out of the Australian economy dampen speculation for additional monetary support.


AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created by D. Song

With Australia Employment anticipated to increase another 10.0K in June, a positive development may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to endorse a wait-and-see approach at the next interest rate decision on August 2, and the higher-yielding currency may outperform in the days ahead should market participants scale back bets for more easing.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) may also stick to the sidelines and retain its current stance at the next rate decision on July 29 as the central bank continues to assess the impact of the negative-interest rate policy (NIRP). Even though the BoJ largely preserves a dovish outlook for monetary policy, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Co. may attempt to buy more time especially as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe delays the sales-tax hike and pledges to take ‘bold’ steps to foster a stronger recovery. As a result, AUD/JPY may face a larger rebound over the near-term, but the long-term downward trend may reassert itself over the coming days/weeks especially as Australia’s AAA-credit rating comes under pressure, while Japan returns to its historical role as a net-lender to the world economy.

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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