cad fundamentals

The Canadian dollar held its own against the US dollar on Thursday, despite the release of disappointing data, as the Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) tumbled to a record low of 39.1 in December. This marked the second straight month that the index held below 50, which signals a deterioration in business activity, and a further breakdown of the report also shows that employment conditions contracted for the fourth consecutive month. This reading suggests that Friday’s releases could have bearish implications for the Loonie, as the Canadian net employment change is forecasted to have fallen by 20,000 during December while the unemployment rate is anticipated to have risen to a nearly three-year high of 6.5 percent from 6.3 percent. Since the employment change tends to be a very volatile release, this should have the greatest impact on the Canadian dollar, with a sharper than expected drop likely to weigh on the currency and an unexpected positive result likely to push it higher.

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