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Trading Around the U.S. Dollar: Price Action Setups

Trading Around the U.S. Dollar: Price Action Setups

James Stanley, Strategist

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- In this webinar, we used price action to look at macro markets ahead of a series of drivers in the FX market. We discussed some of the more prominent themes in this morning’s Market Talk article, and in this webinar we went a step further to investigate strategy around USD for the days ahead.

- We started off with USD as the ‘DXY’ is putting in bullish continuation. The driver here appears to be this morning’s Advance Retail Sales report out of the U.S., which has led to a break of the resistance zone that showed-up last week, after the solid NFP report at the beginning of August. Traders will likely want to pick their spots here, looking to weak currency for usd-strength plays and strong currencies for short-USD scenarios.

- The first that we looked at was EUR/USD, where a really strong bullish trend is finally facing some element of pullback. We saw another test of support at 1.1685 this morning, and we looked at a subordinated zone of potential support from 1.1585-1.1610 that could be usable for bullish continuation approaches. Until prices break-below 1.1500, this could remain as one of the more attractive short-USD setups.

- We then looked at GBP/USD, which is breaking-lower after another disappointing inflation print. We had looked at the technical setup around Cable earlier this morning shortly after that print, and as we looked at on the webinar – there are setups on both sides here. On the bullish side, traders can look to play an inflection off of the bullish trend-line and, on the bearish side, traders can look to trade bearish momentum with stops above the prior swing around 1.3030.

- We then moved over to USD/CAD, which has put-in a rather consistent bullish trend-channel, with prices climbing over a key resistance level at 1.2744. This can open the door to near-term bullish continuation strategies until either a) the bullish trend channel sees a down-side break or b) a ‘bigger picture’ resistance level comes into play.

- We then looked at USD/JPY, which is threatening to break out of the recent bearish trend. The area around 111.00 is key for such, as this was prior resistance when the pair was on the way down. A topside break of the 111.00 zone opens the door for bullish continuation, and with a wide zone of potential resistance from 111.61-112.40, there are a few different areas for traders to look to work with swings.

- We then looked at playing reversals in AUD/USD and NZD/USD, along with relevant levels of interest.

- We closed by looking at setups in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, which remain attractive for playing a reversal or continuation of the recent theme of risk aversion.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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