News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The price of oil pulls back from a fresh monthly high ($66.76) despite a larger-than-expected contraction in US inventories. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/uxLol8LbDH https://t.co/7pcNZa2kSC
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.61% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.53% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.50% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.12% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.02% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/G1tbmnQXlH
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.19% Wall Street: 0.12% France 40: 0.02% Germany 30: -0.16% US 500: -0.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/7TV6gNkFhX
  • The Dollar's drop was not as clean against all of its major counterparts, but the $DXY's trade weighting translated EURUSD's rally into a bearish wedge break here. That said, this still qualifies as an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern https://t.co/FNg92kAOfP
  • IMF says downside risks are materializing in India $USDINR #NIFTY50
  • Dallas Fed's Kaplan: -Fed likely to achieve 'substantial progress' metric faster than expected -There are side effects from bond purchases -Still supports bond purchases but economy has improved faster than anticipated -Fed to reach full jobs, price goals some time in 2022
  • Key break higher for gold this morning as it pushes above $1800 for the first time since February https://t.co/Ih2e5I7ddS
  • Hey traders! Risk trends continue to struggle for clarity of direction. Get your Thursday market update from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/TYFzIJxlvR
  • This bull flag pattern on $EURUSD played out as the textbooks usually project. The break to the upside is perhaps the path of least resistance - at least until we get back to the 1.2150 high, if we get there https://t.co/h5wOcHftl2
  • Dallas Fed's Kaplan (non-voter) -Wants to see taper talks start sooner rather than later
Strategy Video: How Equity Highs and Volatility Lows Belie Anxiety

Strategy Video: How Equity Highs and Volatility Lows Belie Anxiety

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • The S&P 500 hit a record high this past week while the VIX Volatility Index settled in very low territory below 13
  • Distortions from monetary policy and complacency cannot mask the anxiety that has been laid bare these past 2 years
  • A greater frequency of sharp risk aversion fits highlighting liquidity issues pairs dangerously with approaching sparks

What are the Traits of Successful Traders? See what our studies have found to be the most common pitfalls of retail FX traders.

Does a record high from the S&P 500 reflect robust investor confidence? Similarly, does an exceptionally low volatility level from the VIX ensure steadfast market conditions through the near future? Both of these favored benchmarks reflect quiet and prosperous conditions ahead if we were to take them at face value. However, few are as sanguine as these barometers would seem to suggest. Anxiety for many is biting, but the desperation for exposure and return necessitates swallowing down such concerns. That doesn't make the environment any safer. In fact, it makes it more precarious as unrealistic expectations pair with thinning liquidity.

The traditional measures of sentiment present certain shortcomings. The reach of equity prices and the lows of implied volatility indexes can be distorted (temporarily) by monetary policy and hold an inherent bias given its typical participants. The average true range (ATR) and similar measures offer more objective measures of activity, but are still bound by recent periods of activity and can miss the crumbling foundation of confidence. A more comprehensive review of activity can offer a more deferential picture though. For example, transition away from consistent gains for the S&P 500 over the past two years is evidence of optimism losing traction. But, it the increased frequency of sharp declines in index and swells for VIX point to greater instability.

Looking back over the catalysts for these abrupt market corrections, we find global-level catalysts but a greater leverage via liquidity. The dramatic moves in October 2014, August 2015 and January 2016 have been connected to specific sources; but the market environment is more universally seen as the culprit - with market observes more likely to label these events 'flash crashes'. Looking ahead, there are many scheduled and undated events that can sway investors' confidence. The path of a Fed hike to the ECB's and BoJ's struggle to implement effective, aggressive easing comes with specific days. Brexit uncertainty and a contentious US election look to play out over months. Through it all, anxiety will remain high and markets at-risk of sudden turns. We discuss this contrast in traditional volatility measures and investor anxiety in this weekend Strategy Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES