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Heading into FOMC, Senior Technical Strategist Jamie Saettele, CMT takes a look at EUR/USD, DXY (US Dollar Index), gold, and the 30 year US T-Bond.
We’re halfway through March but the levels to pay attention to haven’t changed since 2017 started. The year open and March 2015 low is still a level to know for support at 1.0460. The January high has been the bull/bear dividing line for 2 years at 1.0820. A break of one of the levels ideally triggers a trending move. I’ve no interest in trading EUR/USD between those 2 levels.
Likewise, DXY continues to trade into and pull back from parallels that relate to the May-June 2016 trendline. Levels to pay attention to are 102.38 and 100.39. Weakness below the latter would indicate a behavior change and shift focus towards the trendline and 200 day average below 99.00.
Gold pattern is clean. I wrote in the technicals near the high that “the rally from December takes the shape of a wedge, which could spell trouble for the yellow metal as wedges often resolve with sharp reversals”. Gold has plummeted but could bottom on FOMC.
The 30 year US T-Bond is nearing an interesting level too. The rally from 1981 channels (blow off through the top of the channel and reversal after Brexit) and price is nearing the midpoint of the channel. Bonds last traded at this line (median line) in November 2014. With bonds and gold both nearing fairly significant levels heading into FOMC, respect potential for a positive USD reaction initially…then the reversal.
