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USDJPY– Retail FX traders remain net-long the US Dollar versus the Japanese Yen and have remained such with virtually no interruption through the past 12 months. The USD/JPY has fallen from ¥125 to lows near ¥105 through that stretch, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment has kept us bearish throughout.
The same data shows 65 percent of open positions are currently long the USD/JPY—keeping our bearish bias intact. The only caveat is that long interest has fallen by 22 percent in the past seven days as short interest has risen 21 percent. It seems clear the broader downtrend remains intact, but the recent shift in retail sentiment suggests that the pace of losses may slow.
See next currency section: XAUUSD - Gold Price Forecast to Fall Through Near Term
Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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