S&P 500 Outlook is Clouded by Sudden Sentiment Shift

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US 500: Retail trader data shows 34.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.9 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 5.2% lower than yesterday and 44.9% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.0% lower than yesterday and 13.1% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests US 500 prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed US 500 trading bias.