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Euro Forecast Turns Bearish as it Breaks $1.13

Euro Forecast Turns Bearish as it Breaks $1.13

David Rodriguez, Head of Product


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EURUSDThe ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.09 as 52% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.39; 42% of open positions were long. Long positions are 16.4% higher than yesterday and 21.9% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 23.4% lower than yesterday and 28.8% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 6.7% lower than yesterday and 5.4% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the EURUSD may continue lower. The trading crowd has flipped from net-short to net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.

A key caveat is that Euro volatility prices have tumbled near multi-month lows; a lack of volatility could keep the pair above its 12-year low near $1.11.

See next currency section: GBPUSD - Sharp Shift in Sentiment Warns of British Pound Weakness

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.