Australian Dollar Outlook Points to Gains

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AUDUSD: Retail trader data shows 29.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.36 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Jan 09 when AUDUSD traded near 0.72343; price has moved 6.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 20.4% higher than yesterday and 27.9% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.8% lower than yesterday and 23.1% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUDUSD trading bias.