Silver Price Technical Forecast: Silver Surges 13% - Bulls Eye Resistance

Silver Technical Price Forecast: XAG/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• Silver Price updated technical trade levels - Weekly Chart
• XAG/USD rebound off downtrend support approaching initial downtrend resistance
• Weekly support 18.28/69 (critical), 16.66, 15.47/59 – resistance 20.86-21.13, 22.71, 23.28 (key)

Silver prices surged more than 9.4% last week with XAG/USD rebounding off confluent downtrend support. The focus is on this recovery with the rally now approaching initial trend resistance heading into the August open. Is this just a bear-market recovery or is a more significant turn underway? These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAG/USD weekly technical price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this silver technical setup and more.

Silver Price Chart - XAG/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Silver on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Silver Weekly Technical Forecast we noted that XAG/USD was, “testing a pivotal support zone and leaves the immediate short-bias vulnerable while above 18.28.” Price spent three-weeks testing this support confluence at the 25% parallel (blue) before rebounding sharply last week with silver now up 13% off the lows. The first major test of downtrend resistance is now in view.

The rally is now probing the May lows at 20.46 with key weekly resistance eyed at the 50% retracement of the 2020 rally / 2016 high at 20.86-21.13- a breach / weekly close above this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant lows was registered last month / a larger recovery is underway towards 22.71. Key support remains steady at 18.28/68- a region defined by the 100% extension of the 2021 decline, the 2017 swing high and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021 rally. A break / weekly close below this threshold would be technically damaging and could fuel another accelerated decline towards the February 2020 high-week close at 16.66 and the lower parallels near 15.47/59.

Bottom line: Silver has rebounded off confluent downtrend support with the advance now approaching initial downtrend resistance. From a trading standpoint, we’re on the lookout for a reaction / possible price inflection on stretch into 21.13-21.13 early in the month for guidance IF reached. I’ll publish and updated Silver Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the short-term XAG/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Silver Trader Sentiment – XAG/USD Price Chart

• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Silver- the ratio stands at +10.75 (91.49% of traders are long) – typically bearishreading
• Long positions are0.71% lower than yesterday and 9.34% lower from last week
• Short positions are 1.04% higher than yesterday and 51.16% higher from last week
• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Silver prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. From a sentiment standpoint, the recent changes in positioning warn that the current Silver price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

---

Active Weekly Technical Charts

• Crude Oil (WTI)
• Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
• British Pound (GBP/USD)
• US Dollar Index (DXY)
• Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
• Euro (EUR/USD)
• Gold (XAU/USD)
• S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow

- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex