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  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here:
  • The US Dollar Index traded higher last week, sustaining its broader uptrend. Conflicting technical signals urge caution, but the directional bias remains skewed to the upside. Get your weekly USD technical forecast from @FxWestwater here:
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  • The Australian Dollar still remains vulnerable as it extends losses against its major counterparts. What is the road ahead for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD? Get your AUD technical forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here:
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  • EUR/USD tumbled last week on the day of the ECB’s latest policy announcement, and that weakness is set to continue this week as a flood of major Eurozone economic statistics is released. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • Gold price action is primed for volatility next week with the Fed decision on deck. How real yields and the US Dollar react to fresh guidance from Fed officials will be key for gold outlook. Get your weekly gold forecast from @RichDvorakFX here:
Gold Price & Silver Outlook with Chart Levels and Lines to Watch

Gold Price & Silver Outlook with Chart Levels and Lines to Watch

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Gold Price & Silver Technical Highlights:

  • Gold price breakout holding so far
  • Wedge formation developing on 4-hr chart
  • Silver still capped by falling wedge t-line

See what intermediate-term fundamental drivers and technical signposts our team of analysts are watching in the DailyFX Q2 Gold Forecast.

Gold price breakout holding so far

On Monday, gold price broke above a confluence of resistance lines running down from February and over from March, a pair of lines that made up a descending wedge pattern that has been negated. The breakout was convincing and so thus far holding up with relatively well.

The breakout and subsequent price action is setting gold up for another possible leg higher towards resistance around the 1308/1310-mark. There is, however, a wedge developing which could either turn out to propel gold higher or mark the end of the up-move and set into motion a decline.

If the rising wedge is to come to fruition it is preferred that it fills out a bit more, which means at least another touch of the underside trend-line before chalking this up as a clean formation. Stay above the underside line and the bias remains tilted upward, with a breakout above the top-side line leading to the aforementioned 1308/10 area and possibly an even bigger breakout.

An eventual undercutting of the bottom-side of the pattern will be a bearish event that would likely lead to a move back towards the August trend-line (~1280) which was held twice over the past three weeks.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how changes in trader positioning can help signal the next price move in gold and other major markets and currencies.

Gold Price Daily Chart (will the break higher sustain?)

Gold Price & Silver Outlook with Chart Levels and Lines to Watch

Gold Price 4-hr Chart (wedge forming)

Gold Price & Silver Outlook with Chart Levels and Lines to Watch

Silver still capped by falling wedge t-line

The trend-line dating back to the February high continues to be an impressive source of resistance for silver as it keeps the precious metal edging lower. This line makes up the top-side of a sizable falling wedge. We saw a false breakdown to start the month which was quickly taken back; could the fake-out breakdown turn into an upside breakout?

A convincing break of the top-side trend-line of the pattern and move above the 200-day into the 15s may do the trick. Continued failure to rise above the trend-line may eventually lead sellers to gaining full control and a break of May 2 low at 14.56; with the 14-area initially targeted in this outcome. Either way, the pattern has a lot of pent up pressure, so a big move could soon be in store.

Silver Daily Chart (t-line acting as strong resistance)

Gold Price & Silver Outlook with Chart Levels and Lines to Watch

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.