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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Sellers Ready to Retake Initiative?

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Sellers Ready to Retake Initiative?

Ilya Spivak,

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Talking Points:

  • EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Pending Short at 1.0631
  • Euro recoils from familiar resistance below 1.07 figure vs US Dollar
  • Near-term down trend launched in early February may be resuming

A sharp Euro recovery stalled at a familiar chart barrier below the 1.07 figure, hinting that a corrective bounce from a monthly low may have been exhausted. Near-term positioning has favored the downside since prices broke through the floor of a bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern two weeks ago.

Near-term support is in the 1.0518-28 area (November 24 low, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion), with a daily close below that exposing the 1.0341-67 zone (December 15 low, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a push above support-turned-resistance at 1.0682 opens the door for a retest of the 38.2% Fib retracement at 1.0828.

Last week, partial profit-taking and a breakeven stop-out unwound a Euro short trade from 1.0623. Positioning now looks as though it might offer an opportunity to re-establish the trade under similar parameters and an order has been set to sell at 1.0631. If triggered, the trade will initially target 1.0528 with a stop-loss activated on a daily close above 1.0682.

Are other traders buying or selling the Euro, and what does that hint about the trend? Find out here !

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.