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COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

2015-12-22 16:03:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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  • Heavy USD selling by large speculators
  • Large AUD speculators add longs at fastest pace since May
  • Massive shifts in JPY and CHF

For more analysis and trade setups, visit SB Trade Desk

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The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Non-commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated December 1, 2015:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)

52 week Percentile

US Dollar

4

Euro

53

British Pound

57

Australian Dollar

90

Japanese Yen

80

Canadian Dollar

12

Swiss Franc

61

Mexican Peso

24

Gold

2

Silver

18

Copper

30

Crude

4

Charts (all charts are continuous contract)

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

US Dollar ICEUS Continuous Contract

COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

US Dollar ICEUS Continuous Contract

COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The rate of change of the COT index is plotted below price (for more on that, read Sentiment in the Forex Market) on the 2nd chart. The current positioning change is the largest since September 2013 (with speculators selling and commercials buying). The implication is that the USD is ‘sold out’ near term.

Euro CME Continuous Contract

COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

British Pound CME Continuous Contract

COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Australian DollarCME Continuous Contract

COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Australian DollarCME Continuous Contract

COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The rate of change of the COT index is plotted below price (for more on that, read Sentiment in the Forex Market) on the 2nd chart. The current positioning change is the largest since May (with speculators buying and commercials selling). The implication is that AUD is at risk of turning lower.

Japanese YenCME Continuous Contract

COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Japanese YenCME Continuous Contract

COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The rate of change of the COT index is plotted below price (for more on that, read Sentiment in the Forex Market) on the 2nd chart. The current positioning change is the 2nd largest of the year (with speculators buying and commercials selling) after only the ‘crash’ week of 8/28. The implication is that Yen is at risk of turning lower.

Canadian DollarCME Continuous Contract

COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Swiss Franc CME Continuous Contract

COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Swiss Franc CME Continuous Contract

COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The rate of change of the COT index is plotted below price (for more on that, read Sentiment in the Forex Market) on the 2nd chart. The current positioning change is the largest since September 2007 (with speculators buying and commercials selling). The implication is that CHF is at risk of turning lower.

Mexican Peso CME Continuous Contract

COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold COMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Silver COMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Copper COMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Crude Oil NYMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Most USD Selling by Large Traders Since Sep 2013

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market and co-founder of SB Trade Desk.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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