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British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook: GBP/USD May Edge Lower Near-Term

British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook: GBP/USD May Edge Lower Near-Term

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

GBP price, news and analysis:

  • UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has confirmed that most coronavirus restrictions in England will end on July 19; potentially positive news for GBP.
  • However, the lack of response in GBP/USD suggests more near-term weakness for the pair and GBP crosses.

GBP/USD at risk of further modest fall

Confirmation Monday from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson that most coronavirus restrictions in England will be lifted from July 19 has failed to boost GBP, even though the re-opening could be seen as positive for the UK economy and therefore the currency.

This suggests that GBP/USD could extend its decline so far this week, guided perhaps by fears that the restrictions are being lifted too soon given the spread of the Delta variant of the virus in the UK. Note though that trendline support kicks in around 1.3740 and that level will likely stem any further losses.

GBP/USD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (April 5 – July 13, 2021)

British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook: GBP/USD May Edge Lower Near-Term

Source: IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

In the news, the Bank of England has scrapped pandemic-era curbs on bank dividends, with Governor Andrew Bailey saying that, in recent months, the rapid rollout of the UKs vaccination program has led to an improvement in the UK economic outlook. However, he added that “risks to the recovery remain,” and that households and businesses are likely to need continuing support from the financial system as the economy recovers and the governments support measures unwind over the coming months.

Also, members of the Westminster Parliament will vote later Tuesday on the governments cuts to the UKs foreign-aid budget but that is not expected to have an impact on Sterling unless a Government defeat leads to fears of political instability.

For a longer-term outlook for GBP click here

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst

Feel free to contact me on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.