News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @KyleR_IG: Restrictions to be eased in Victoria as the state records three new COVID-19 cases https://t.co/i7ED0r6zuP
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.88% Silver: -0.04% Gold: -0.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/JOgCXf4qhk
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/AeBDanqM4V
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.19% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.04% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.04% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/LIX3ToP9Bc
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in USD/CHF are long at 75.86%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 82.70%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/fvWYlP8HEP
  • Dow Jones Retreats Ahead of FOMC, Nikkei 225 and ASX 200 Open Lower https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/06/16/Dow-Jones-Retreats-Ahead-of-FOMC-Nikkei-225-and-ASX-200-Open-Lower.html https://t.co/2sjz9ZpHgH
  • 🇦🇺 Westpac Leading Index MoM (MAY) Actual: -0.06% Previous: 0.19% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
  • MSCI #EmergingMarkets Index (EEM), which is heavily weighed in Chinese stocks, has been struggling to breach the 54.97 - 55.34 inflection zone A hawkish #Fed (especially amid ebbing #PBOC liquidity measures), could risk weighing the index Breach under 20-day SMA exposes MAR low https://t.co/4WQED01FWV
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/Lt3Z0TODqu
  • Natural gas spot prices have been on the rise, recapturing a key trendline, following the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. Where can prices head from here? Find out from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/yK48nZD1ag https://t.co/CPBSrdO485
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Forecast: NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, NZD/CAD Setups to Watch

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Forecast: NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, NZD/CAD Setups to Watch

Justin McQueen, Analyst

NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, NZD/CAD Price Analysis & News

  • NZD Soars on Hawkish RBNZ Pivot
  • ECB Doves Raises EUR/NZD Downside Risk
  • Overcooked CAD Leaves Room for NZD/CAD Upside

NZD: Another hawkish pivot from a G10 central bank, this time from the RBNZ who join the BoC and Norges Bank. While we had anticipated a hawkish outcome, the RBNZ had still managed to provide a hawkish surprise having signalled the possibility that they could raise the OCR by mid-late 2022 with a 25bps rate hike called for September 2022 and a further 100bps worth of hikes by December 2023. In turn, this hawkish stance from the RBNZ is likely to keep NZD on the front foot going forward. Reminder, the BoC hawkish pivot led to sizeable gains for the Canadian Dollar in the following ahead.

RBNZ OCR PROJECTION

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Forecast: NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, NZD/CAD Setups to Watch

NZD/USD: Taking a look at the chart, NZD/USD has backed off key resistance at 0.7314, which coincides with the January 6th peak. Following the RBNZ’s hawkish surprise, there is scope for further gains in the Kiwi, raising the risk of a topside break of resistance. Should this take place, this leaves room for the pair to make a push towards the YTD peak, given that there is little in the way of notable resistance above 0.7314. Momentum studies (RSI) remain positive for the pair and thus setbacks are likely to be supported from 0.7260-65 and 0.7200 below.

A Guide to Support and Resistance Trading

NZD/USD Chart: Daily Time Frame

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Forecast: NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, NZD/CAD Setups to Watch

Source: Refinitiv

EUR/NZD: While the cross may have already seen a sharp pullback, risks remain for an extended move lower. The RBNZ is now sitting on the hawkish side of the spectrum relative to the majority of G10 central banks. Meanwhile, the ECB doves have been out in force to talk down the possibility of changes to PEPP purchases for Q3 (in other words tapering PEPP purchases) as we head towards a critical meeting in June.

Recent ECB commentary

  • ECB’s Panetta: The conditions that we see today do not justify reducing the pace of purchases, and a discussion above phasing out the PEPP is still clearly premature.
  • ECB’s Villeroy: Any hypothesis of a reduction of purchases partly for Q3 or the following quarters is purely speculative.
  • ECB’s Stournaras: Sees no reason to change the pace of PEPP purchase programme.

In the meantime, further ECB commentary will be key to watch as it will shape expectations going into the June 10th meeting and with ECB doves noting that PEPP purchase changes are not needed at present, the uptrend in the Euro has come to a halt.

On the technical front, the cross is testing trendline support, should EUR/NZD close below here, this likely confirms that the cross can extend lower where the next downside target would be at 1.6600 and 1.6580. On the longer term, the monetary policy divergence theme could see a move to 1.62-1.63.

EUR/NZD Chart: Daily Time Frame

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Forecast: NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, NZD/CAD Setups to Watch

Source: Refinitv

NZD/CAD: A strong bounce from October 2020 lows, NZD/CAD appears to be on course for a move to the 0.89 handle. As I have said previously on the Canadian Dollar, the move looks to be overcooked and with positioning somewhat stretched on the long side, CAD is vulnerable to a squaring of positions. In turn, this bodes well for NZD/CAD to challenge higher levels.

NZD/CAD Chart: Daily Time Frame

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Forecast: NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, NZD/CAD Setups to Watch

Source: Refinitiv

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES