News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/RJLpBgS43V
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/6GrWzkOouM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/lIUxpfSem3
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/8kBulRFd6l
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/6u52PuzIaY
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/rHDy0XNZjQ
  • (Weekly Outlook) Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Divergence With Wall Street Risks Continuing #AUD $AUDUSD #Fed #Stocks https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2021/06/12/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-AUDUSD-Divergence-With-Wall-Street-Risks-Continuing.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/ryxG0fHmzd
  • The US Dollar steadied against most ASEAN currencies this past week. Key support levels remain in play looking at USD/SGD, USD/THB and USD/PHP. USD/IDR may rise with a new trendline. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/bpr5ZlKIcE https://t.co/0pskmzXZHi
  • EUR/USD has been looking toppy since late May as bearish technical signals played out. But, rising Euro short bets from retail traders hint that the currency may hold its footing. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/fAZijmQVqh https://t.co/pXICvFE007
  • The Japanese Yen may rise as retail investors increase their long exposure in pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Will these pairs turn lower? What are key levels to watch for? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/PqNahX71oF https://t.co/xZzmwrVQcr
Gold Forecast: Gold Volatility Surging as Real Yields Tumble

Gold Forecast: Gold Volatility Surging as Real Yields Tumble

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

GOLD PRICE FORECAST: FALLING REAL YIELDS, RISING VOLATILITY TO FUEL GOLD RALLY

  • Gold outlook has brightened considerably over the last few weeks thanks to lower real yields
  • Gold price volatility is expected to continue accelerating higher as indicated by the GVZ Index
  • Inflation fears are rising quickly and stand to outpace modest rises in nominal interest rates
Advertisement

Precious metals like gold and silver have traded quite favorably over recent weeks. Gold price action, for example, has now climbed nearly 10% from its 08 March low around $1,680/oz. The strong rebound being staged by gold bulls seems to largely track the reversal lower in real yields. This has followed a sharp rise in inflation expectations, which is a trend that may persist and even outpace perkiness across nominal interest rates. Even with the ten-year Treasury yield recoiling 12-basis points higher off Friday’s swing low, gold prices have been able to extend higher. That said, the Federal Reserve just released its monthly survey of consumer expectations earlier today, which detailed another rise in short-term inflation expectations from 3.2% to 3.4%.

GOLD PRICE CHART WITH TEN-YEAR REAL YIELDS OVERLAID: DAILY TIME FRAME (02 JUNE 2020 TO 10 MAY 2021)

Gold Price Chart with Ten Year US Real Yield Overlaid

Several other gauges of inflation have shown building price pressures, too. Five-year inflation swaps have risen above 2.5% to hit their highest reading since January 2018. Prices for major commodities have been ripping higher and threaten to weigh on consumers’ pocketbooks. Business activity surveys like the ISM’s monthly PMI report have highlighted constrained supply chains and production bottlenecks that stand to seep into the economy. Even so, Fed officials have professed that rising inflation is likely to be transitory and how the central bank is willing to stomach modest inflation overshoots above the 2% average inflation target. This brings to focus high-impact inflation data due for release this coming Wednesday, 12 May at 12:30 GMT.

GOLD PRICE CHART WITH GVZ INDEX OVERLAID: DAILY TIME FRAME (10 JULY 2020 TO 10 MAY 2021)

Gold Price Chart with GVZ Index Overlaid Gold Volatility

Chart by @RichDvorakFX created using TradingView

Meanwhile, taking a look at the GVZ Index suggests that gold volatility is expected to continue accelerating higher. The GVZ Index reflects 30-day implied volatility for the SDPR Gold Trust ETF ($GLD). Broadly speaking, gold price action tends to move in the same direction of and hold a positive correlation with gold volatility. By extension of this generally direct relationship between gold prices and gold volatility, there could be enough bullish momentum behind the precious metal to challenge – and perhaps eclipse – its 200-day SMA. A reversal lower in expected gold volatility, however, could indicate that bulls are looking to unwind the recent rally.

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES