News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Notice

BoE Chief Econimist (Hawk) is to Step Down From BoE After June Meeting

Real Time News
  • Had the pleasure of sitting down with @GuyAdami and @RiskReversal for another episode of The Macro Setup to discuss $GLD $BTC and $SPX ahead of earnings season and the Coinbase IPO Watch here - https://t.co/6usEdkA5om
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.41% Germany 30: 0.06% Wall Street: 0.00% FTSE 100: 0.00% US 500: -0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/0qT3sH7l3i
  • #Bitcoin breaks out to fresh all-time highs as investors cast an eye to the long awaited Coinbase IPO #BTC $BTCUSD https://t.co/qwxlzkGa9C
  • NY Fed Treasury purchase schedule remains unchanged - BBG
  • Silver posting a strong session, now up 2.3% on the day. In recent trade, silver has struggled to break above the 50-day EMA $XAG $USD https://t.co/BetnXeKLj3
  • Bitcoin sets another record high. BTC/USD gains traction in anticipation of Coinbase IPO. Get your $btc market update from @Tams707 here:https://t.co/twYdOVA0hW https://t.co/EXlj1yWjyL
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Bostic Speech due at 19:15 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-13
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.28% Gold: 0.78% Oil - US Crude: 0.14% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/YIgPqIQiO8
  • Mitch McConnell: There is no GOP support for repealing the tax bill $USD
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.36%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 75.62%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/XaeYYJbglR
GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF Price Outlook: Pound Sterling Rally Stalls Out

GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF Price Outlook: Pound Sterling Rally Stalls Out

Izaac Brook,

GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF Talking Points:

  • GBP/JPY Consolidating at Multi-Year Highs Above 150.00 Level.
  • GBP/CHF Consolidating Around 1.2900 Level.
  • Pound Has Surged In 2021, Currently Up Over 6% Against JPY and CHF.
Advertisement

GBP/JPY Consolidating Above 150.00 Level

GBP/JPY is currently trading at its highest level since the spring of 2018. The pair began to trend upwards in late September. The Brexit agreement reached between the EU and the UK in late December triggered volatility in the pair, but has since provided a tailwind to the Pound.

While Brexit-related uncertainties remain high, the conclusion of an initial deal was enough to drive the pair back above the 140.00 level for the first time since early September. Since breaking that level, the pair hasn’t looked back, rising steadily throughout 2021 to currently trade around the 152.00 level.

GBP/JPY – 1 Day Time Frame (November 2017 – March 2021)

GBP/JPY, GBP JPY, GBP JPY Yearly, TradingView

Chart created by Izaac Brook, Source: TradingView

While the pair has performed strongly, further gains may be less likely. The GBP/JPY rally hit a bump in late February as bond yields spiked higher, sending the pair falling from above 150.00 to the 148.00 level.

As bond markets stabilized, the pair edged higher, hitting a fresh multi-year high around the 152.20 level on March 12th. Since then the pair has traded sideways in a tight range between 151.00 and 152.00. Further moves higher may need a catalyst on one or both sides as the momentum-driven rally looks to have nearly exhausted itself.

GBP/JPY – 1 Hour Time Frame (February – March 2021)

GBPJPY, GBP/JPY, GBPJPY 2021, TradingView

Chart created by Izaac Brook, Source: TradingView

GBP Forecast
GBP Forecast
Recommended by Izaac Brook
Get Your Free GBP Forecast
Get My Guide

GBP/CHF Consolidating Around 1.2900 Level

Like GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF has performed strongly in 2021, rising from 1.2000 to currently trade above 1.2900, its highest point in over a year. The Swiss Franc has been weakening in the new-year as the reflation trade takes hold around the world and investors shy away from safe-haven currencies.

GBP/CHF: 1 Day Time Frame (November 2018 – March 2021)

GBP, GBP/CHF, GBPCHF, Daily, 2019 - 2021, TradingView

Chart created by Izaac Brook, Source: TradingView

While the GBP/CHF rally has been equally as impressive as GBP/JPY, it also faces the same problem. The pair reached the 1.2900 level in early March and has consolidated there since, with any attempts higher quickly reverting back to support at 1.2900.

GBP/CHF: 1 Hour Time Frame (February – March 2021)

GBPCHF, GBP/CHF, GBPCHF 1 Hour, TradingView, GBPCHF 2021

Chart created by Izaac Brook, Source: TradingView

Overall, the rally in Pound Sterling seems to have reached a potential inflection point. Continued Brexit uncertainty, especially surrounding equivalence in the financials sector, may add to downside risks for the British currency.

On the other hand, the UK seems to have weathered its most recent wave of Covid and has been much more successful with its vaccination rollouts than other European nations. The upcoming rollback of restrictions may provide a further tailwind to the Pound.

Most importantly, the BoE’s March 18th policy meeting will likely be the deciding factor as to whether the Pound makes another move higher or if it begins to step back from the gains made so far this year. Markets will look for changes in the BoE’s language and policy as the central bank provides an update on their outlook for the British economy.

--- Written by Izaac Brook, DailyFX Research Intern

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES