News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.93% Silver: 0.75% Gold: 0.72% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/g27Iwp8uPa
  • 🇺🇸 NAHB Housing Market Index (MAY) Actual: 83 Expected: 83 Previous: 83 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-17
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.00%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 71.53%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/CRl85ShvFp
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.78% Silver: 0.70% Gold: 0.56% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/2TtnMVtOFs
  • $EURUSD still battling at that fibo resistance 2167, another inflection this morning https://t.co/v1X3gN2RRX https://t.co/oMC1OvWkI7
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 NAHB Housing Market Index (MAY) due at 14:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 84 Previous: 83 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-17
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: -0.01% France 40: -0.13% Wall Street: -0.29% US 500: -0.29% FTSE 100: -0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/e0gUTLKXn0
  • The Pound saw a modest bout of buying as GBP had been underpinned by reduced political tail risks after the SNP failed to gain a majority at the Scottish Election. Get your $GBP market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/bbxv0Aq2LJ https://t.co/LhP15IXDPp
  • it's a big week for $TSLA stock last week it gave up the trendline that's been in-play since last August This week, opening at the 38.2% retracement of the 2020/21 rally https://t.co/cUThTeLFN8
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.11%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 74.44%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/lyppug4pkN
Rand Report: Why “Lower” Unemployment May Hurt the Rand, USD/ZAR

Rand Report: Why “Lower” Unemployment May Hurt the Rand, USD/ZAR

Richard Snow, Markets Writer

USD/ZAR Analysis:

  • SA’s official Q2 unemployment rate at 23.3%, down from 30.1% in Q1
  • The unemployment calculation has been positively influenced by the lockdown as many despondent job seekers have been omitted from the calculation
  • USD/ZAR had been trading lower after the announcement. Full analysis below

SA’s Unemployment Rate Declines to 23.3%

After having to delay the release of the official and expanded unemployment rate due to Covid-19, Stats SA communicated that unemployment had in fact declined, contrary to expectations of an increase in unemployment.

SA unemployment stats

Reference: Stats SA

For all market-moving data releases and events see the DailyFX Economic Calendar

Why the Calculation of Unemployment Matters

The supposed improvements in the labor market is very much a function of the way the unemployment rate is calculated. The unemployment rate is arrived at by dividing unemployed individuals that are still actively seeking employment by the total labor force. The labor force consists of those who are employed and the unemployed who are actively seeking employment).

Unemployment Rate = Unemployed Individuals/Labor Force

However, due to restricted movement under the most stringent period of lockdown (level 5), many who were unemployed were unable to seek employment or less able to seek employment than pre-Covid. The result of this means that they fell outside of the definition of “unemployed” as they were not seen to be actively seeking employment and were therefore classified as “discouraged work seekers”.

Breakdown of SA unemployment stats

Reference: Stats SA

Therefore, the flattering figure is not necessarily reflective of the true picture of unemployment when compared to the wider definition of unemployment that considers all unemployed individuals within the working age range. This figure stands at 42% of the population or 10.3 million individuals.

Expanded definition of unemployment in SA

Reference: Stats SA

USD/ZAR Price Action and Analysis

The USDZAR currency pair has traded in a very choppy fashion since the second week of June and has presented no clear signs of a long term directional bias/ trend. USD/ZAR has traded within the broader range of 17.7860 and 16.0000 and now trades roughly in the middle of that range.

The pairing recently bounced off the 38.2% Fib level (drawn from the January low to the April high, 2020) and has continued to move lower. Price action is testing the 16.8000 level with a break and close below this level bringing the 16.5300 and the 16.3300 levels of support into focus.

A rejection of the 16.8000 level combined with a break above the blue zone of resistance (16.95000 – 17.0000), could see a retest of the 38.2% Fib level (17.2650) and possibly even the 17.5000 and swing high of 17.7860 should upward momentum persist.

USD/ZAR Daily Chart with Key Technical Levels

USD/ZAR Daily chart

Chart prepared by Richard Snow, IG

--- Written by Richard Snow for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Richard on Twitter: @RichardSnowFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES