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Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Threatens Breakdown Ahead of Fed

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Threatens Breakdown Ahead of Fed

2020-07-28 22:00:00
Peter Hanks, Analyst
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Canadian Dollar Price Outlook:

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Threatens Breakdown Ahead of Fed

US Dollar weakness has been a prevalent theme in capital markets as of late, as the world’s reserve currency continues its downward spiral and other assets, commodities and currencies gain as a result. USD/CAD is no exception as the pair recently fell to its lowest level since early June. Prior to the swing low in June, the 1.3340 level in USD/CAD has not been seen since the early stages of the coronavirus crash in March.

USD/CAD Price Chart: 4 - Hour Time Frame (January 2020 – July 2020)

USD/CAD price chart

While recent price action and movement in other markets may suggest a further decline in the USD/CAD exchange rate, the looming Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday has potential to shake up the pair’s outlook. As it stands, analysts have asserted US Dollar weakness has been derived from the Fed’s willingness to offer accommodative monetary policy and expand its balance sheet. Thus, an event at which this trend could change possesses huge influence over the Greenback.

USD/CAD MIXED
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -6% -7% -6%
Weekly -11% -1% -9%
What does it mean for price action?
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With that in mind, USD bulls will look for any indication in either action or language from the Fed that would suggest the tap is being turned off and the flow of Dollars into the market will slow. I would argue this is rather unlikely at this stage as few Fed members have suggested as much, and as a result, market expectations are likely keyed into this theme as well.

USD/CAD Price Chart: 1 - Hour Time Frame (May - July)

USD/CAD price chart

Therefore, a surprise shift to the hawkish side could spark a quick Dollar rally, but betting on an unlikely outcome as the pair grasps at support seems to rely heavily on hope – a poor strategy to be sure. Consequently, the meeting may fail to deliver a massive shock of volatility if outcomes align with expectations, but it may allow for a continuation downward in USD/CAD in the weeks ahead.

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Since price currently resides on potential support, levels of invalidation can be set slightly above recent swing highs, while areas of interest take shape beneath the 1.33 area. Regardless of the Fed’s eventual action, price progression often slows ahead of major events as traders seek to avoid event risk, so a continuation of the norm and passing of event risk could see USD/CAD continue lower. For further updates and analysis, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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