News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • GBP turbulence persists as investors eye the next round of EU-UK Brexit negotiations. Cautious optimism signals a deal is near. Get your #currencies update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/WjU4oYpmf7 https://t.co/VcNnCjm0B2
  • An economic calendar is a resource that allows traders to learn about important economic information scheduled to be released. Stay up to date on the most important global economic data here: https://t.co/JdvW6HNuqV https://t.co/AiLoS7DrEQ
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/3Wked6GBOp https://t.co/HicBmGrokK
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:https://t.co/7kPzAoNoLG https://t.co/5lbyBJeeA7
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here: https://t.co/lAFyv1gM0P https://t.co/ubLimoYAcr
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/QQwAZTxZFg https://t.co/4cRhRCiv3C
  • The US Dollar could gain as it forms bullish technical formations against the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit. USD/PHP may have bottomed, will USD/IDR rise next? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3UIKmbLIvD https://t.co/PY2YyH4vkQ
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3wsYlSxd26 https://t.co/z2qB9p8IgX
  • A proxy of #EmergingMarket capital flows hit its lowest since July, falling with the #SP500 after some divergence This is as #USD gained against its developing FX counterparts, highlighting potential risk of a spillover outwards Stay tuned for next week's #ASEAN fundy outlook! https://t.co/kAvpnb0EXO
  • 4 consecutive down weeks for the #SP500, last matched over a year ago #Fed balance sheet continues to gain very cautiously, now at its highest since the middle of June. Still, at slower pace than last week Focus shifts to US fiscal stimulus next week in the House of Reps https://t.co/f8zpSILm86
Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Jumps from Key Chart Support

Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Jumps from Key Chart Support

2020-07-01 15:47:00
James Stanley, Strategist
Share:

Euro Price Analysis:

  • EUR/USD spent the bulk of Q2 in a range-bound state, following a riveting outlay in Q1.
  • Through the month of June, EUR/USD has repeatedly tested a confluent spot of support on the chart.
  • As yet, bulls have yet to give in as prices have begun Q3 with a jump off of that zone.

EUR/USD Starts H2 from Key Chart Support

Coming into the month of June, it appeared as though a trend may begin to take hold in EUR/USD. After spending the bulk of the first two months of Q2 in a range-bound state, buyers took control while driving the pair from a low below the price of 1.0900 up to a high above the 1.1400 level. This consistent topside run made a fast approach at a huge zone of resistance; but buyers pulled up shy and prices began to pullback in the first-half of the month.

That pullback found buyers at a key point on the chart; this area runs from a batch of confluent Fibonacci levels plotted from 1.1187-1.1212. The latter of those levels is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the lifetime move in EUR/USD, taking the 2001 low up to the 2008 high. The former of those levels is the 61.8% retracement of the 2017-2018 major move.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

EURUSD EUR/USD Four Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EUR/USD on Tradingview

The big question at this point is whether buyers can take control for long enough to bring upon a re-test of the key resistance zone at 1.1448-1.1500. This zone is comprised of both the 50% marker of the 2017-2018 major move, as well as the 1.1500 psychological level that bulls didn’t want to encroach upon during the March run.

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading
Recommended by James Stanley
Access our Free Guides
Get My Guide

Since topping-out in early-June, EUR/USD bulls have been thwarted at a series of lower-highs; and that frequency has increased over the past week, as illustrated by a series of bearish trendlines. On the chart below are two bearish trendlines: In red, we have a trendline produced from the June 10th and June 23rd swing highs. This projection aligns with the approximate 1.1292, which would make it confluent with 23.6% retracement of the May-June major move. In maroon, however, is a shorter-term bearish trendline, that’s already being tested through with this morning’s price action; and that’s simply connecting last week’s swing high to this week’s swing high.

EUR/USD Two-Hour Price Chart

EURUSD EUR/USD Two Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EUR/USD on Tradingview

EUR/USD Strategy Moving Forward

As we open deeper into the second-half of the year, the big question is whether buyers can stage anything more than a short-term rally. Given the series of risk events on the horizon, it’s likely to imagine that continued volatility will remain at play.

For the bullish side of the pair, the near-term strength seen in the first day of Q3 trade will be key, looking for buyers to continue pushing from this very key spot of support. Should buyers retain control, the next major area of resistance would be the same that turned around the March advance, running from 1.1448-1.5000.

On the bearish side of the matter, and given recent stimuli, it appears that some risk aversion may be in order. This could entail a push back towards the 1.1000 handle, and should price action hold resistance around that confluent spot of 1.1292, then the potential for a descending triangle break may remain in the cards. The descending triangle will often be approached with the aim of bearish breakouts, looking for the same motivation that’s brought in bears at lower highs to, eventually, take over to allow for a break through horizontal support. This is one of the many chart formations that are investigated in the DailyFX Education course. The stakes may seem raised here given the nature of this bigger picture support that remains in play.

Retail Traders Betting on Bears, but Can That Continue?

From an IGCS point of view, retail traders are currently heavily short in the pair, with 63% of traders currently holding bearish positions (as of this writing).

EUR/USD BEARISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 4% -9% -4%
Weekly 26% -14% 0%
Real-Time IGCS Read on EUR/USD
Get My Guide

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES