News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/G58J1dg6y3 https://t.co/fGi6YgqqQt
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/fdigOgkmio
  • A forex trader is strategic, disciplined and always switched on to the markets. Learn how to build an FX mindset here: https://t.co/tB3aAErd70 https://t.co/Ilqz8BWTk0
  • The final ‘full’ week of the year brings about the last wave of significant event risk from around the globe, including three central bank rate decisions (Fed, BOE, & BOJ). Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/PhqxSPlngI https://t.co/XX57vSjQwV
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/HOvzuOICQx
  • Ever wonder if there are other chart types that can be sued for technical analysis? HLOC charts are discussed in the following article as well as their pros and cons. Learn more here: https://t.co/qV3c7a4YR3 https://t.co/32hYzqhuZ9
  • The Australian Dollar sits on the crossroads of Treasury yields, the S&P 500 and US fiscal stimulus expectations. Will $AUDUSD gains slow? Chinese Q4 GDP and Australian jobs data are due. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/BsYmmWFYOH https://t.co/HhLqb2iVgk
  • #Gold prices have come under significant pressure to kick-off 2021. However, the formation of bullish technical patterns across multiple timeframes suggests that a rebound higher may be at hand. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/Dpf8N4Fh0T https://t.co/pnZpnM9yT5
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/yCtLFemdNc
  • GBP underpinned as BoE downplays negative rates, alongside vaccine rollout. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/n6V6uw0XV5 https://t.co/Toq2fxSdBE
AUD/JPY Slide Continues, ASX 200 Rally Stalls as Unemployment Surges

AUD/JPY Slide Continues, ASX 200 Rally Stalls as Unemployment Surges

2020-06-19 02:00:00
Daniel Moss, Analyst

AUD/JPY, ASX 200, RBA, COVID-19 Talking Points:

  • Worse-than-expected Australian employment data has dulled the recent surge in the Australian Dollar
  • RBA board member, Ian Harper, calls for extension of fiscal stimulus
  • AUD/JPY continues its slide from fresh yearly highs as the ASX 200 stalls at pivotal resistance.

Recent employment data has taken the shine off the Australian economy, as the unemployment rate jumped to its highest level in 19-years and the participation rate fell to 62.9%, the lowest since January 2001.

With the economy shedding a staggering 835,000 jobs in the past two months Reserve Bank of Australia board member Ian Harper has called for an extension of the current JobKeeper and JobSeeker initiatives beyond the September 27 deadline.

Image of Australian Employment to Population Ratio

Source – Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Alluding to RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s comments that the success of the economic recovery “will depend on the confidence that people and businesses have” Harper stresses that cessation of fiscal stimulus would be the “strongest form of Cold Turkey” and “would have a significant negative effect on consumer confidence”.

Speaking in a personal capacity, the RBA board member also hinted that “it would certainly be unhelpful” if the Australian Dollar “rate was back up over 70 cents, that’s for sure” after the recent 12-week surge pushed the commodity-linked currency to an 11-month high against its US Dollar counterpart.

Image of Australian COVID-19 Cases Per Jurisdiction

Source – Department of Health

The emergence of a second wave of the coronavirus remains the greatest fear for Harper due to the “devastating impact” the reimposition of lockdown measures “would have on public confidence”.

With daily new cases becoming a rarity in the majority of the Australian jurisdictions, the threat of an impending secondary outbreak remains minimal.

However, the recent surge of cases in Victoria may intensify underlying concerns as local states and territories continue to ease restrictions, with a sustained, systemic increase possibly fuelling a further decline in AUD.

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading
Recommended by Daniel Moss
Building Confidence in Trading
Get My Guide

AUD/JPY Daily Chart

Image of AUD/JPY Price Daily Chart

Source – Trading View

The Australian Dollar has surged as much as 28% from the March low (59.87) to set a fresh yearly high (76.78) on June 8, as the RSI strengthened into overbought territory for the first time since January 2018.

Resistance at the December high (76.25) proved to be a step too far for buyers as price slid back towards Rising Wedge support and the 61.8% Fibonacci (72.72).

Failure of price to close above test the psychologically pivotal 74-handle has seen AUD/JPY slice through the supportive trend extending from the yearly low (59.87).

With both the RSI and momentum indicators snapping their respective uptrends, an acceleration of the recent decline could be on the cards.

A daily close below the 200-day moving average (72.16) could open up a path for price to test support at the April high (70.17), with a close below the imposing 70-handle possible signalling a resumption of the primary downtrend.

ASX 200 Daily Chart

Image of ASX 200 Price Daily Chart

Source – Trading View

The ASX 200 has been grinding higher since slicing through the 12-week uptrend from the yearly low (4,387), with the 50-MA (5,756) serving as a springboard for price to retest psychological resistance at the 6,000-level.

As the momentum indicator continues to flatline the outlook for the Australian benchmark remains tilted to the downside, with the 200-MA (6,087) and 61.8% Fibonacci (6,124) region potentially capping upside potential.

Inability to close above the 6,000-hande could see price fall back to the 50-MA (5,756), with a break below support possibly carving a path back to test the 50% Fibonacci (5,160) and April low (5,028).

-- Written by Daniel Moss

Follow me on Twitter @DanielGMoss

Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by Daniel Moss
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES