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FTSE 100 Forecast: Index Surges Through Price Gap, Can it Continue?

FTSE 100 Forecast: Index Surges Through Price Gap, Can it Continue?

Peter Hanks, Strategist

FTSE 100 Price Outlook:

FTSE 100 Forecast: Index Surges Through Price Gap, Can it Continue?

The FTSE 100 surged to its highest level since early June on Wednesday after the equity index pierced a longstanding technical barrier around 6,200. The zone marked confluent Fibonacci levels and had worked to stall bullish attempts higher in the past, notably coinciding with the swing-high in late April. All in all, the ascending channel with which the FTSE 100 trades remains intact and passing through resistance allowed for bulls to capitalize on open air above.

FTSE 100 Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (March – June)

FTSE 100 price chart

With a price gap ranging from roughly 6,200 to 6,400, the bullish break above resistance at 6,200 opened the door to a quick continuation – due to the nature of price gaps – and the FTSE must now negotiate secondary resistance around 6,400. 6,400 aligns not only with the top of the gap, but also another Fibonacci level. With that said, the spot is likely to influence price, at least to some degree, in the days ahead.

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If sentiment shifts and risk appetite diminishes, the FTSE 100 may retreat from resistance at 6,400 and fall back into the 6,400 to 6,200 range. Since the gap was filled, price movement should be met with more resistance – regardless of direction. Either way, the FTSE 100 should now enjoy support from prior resistance at 6,200, and due to the level’s influence in the past, it may prove to be a vital staging ground for bullish attempts down the road.

FTSE 100 Mixed
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -13% 12% -4%
Weekly 6% -10% -1%
What does it mean for price action?
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With the ascending channel intact and a series of higher-highs and higher-lows, FTSE 100 price action suggests further strength may be on the horizon. Coupled with IG Client Sentiment Data which reveals retail clients are net-short, it seems as though the shorter-term trend is leaning toward a continuation higher.

That being said, I have my reservations about current stock market activity and suspect the risk-reward relationship for many indices is currently skewed to the downside – a topic discussed at length in my webinar. Nevertheless, price is unemotional and unfeeling and recent price action is hardly a harbinger of bearish reversals so price may continue higher in the shorter-term regardless of the underlying fundamentals. In the meantime, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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