US Dollar, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, COT Report –Analysis
- US Dollar Shorts Slashed
- GBP/USD & EUR/USD Shorts Pick-Up
- Investors Defensive on Risk Sensitive Currencies Amid US-China Tensions
The Predictive Power of the COT Report
Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to May 19th, released May 22nd)
US Dollar Shorts Slashed, GBP/USD & EUR/USD Shorts Pick-Up - COT Report
In the latest reporting week, investors had continued to pare back their bearish bets in the US Dollar, which saw a $1.4bln reduction against G10 currencies. Most notably the bulk of the positioning changes had been observed in the Euro, which saw net longs yet again cut back as outright shorts continued to pick-up. However, while Euro longs remain sizeable, price action has shown little signs of a directional bias as ranges persist.
As political risks and BoE NIRP (negative interest rate policy) chatter do the rounds, speculators continue to boost their bearish bets in the Pound with overall net shorts at $1.454bln. In light of these risks, GBP/USD rallies may be somewhat short-lived with the pair vulnerable to pullbacks.
Rising tensions between the US and China have seen investors grow increasingly defensive against risk-sensitive currencies such as CAD and AUD with net shorts rising $224mln and $294mln respectively. While safe-haven currencies remain in favour, funds added to Swiss Franc net longs to total $1.1bln, making positioning somewhat stretched.
US Dollar
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
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--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX
