News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • No change in interest rates is expected, but the central bank could adopt a more hawkish language in response to the deteriorating inflation outlook. Get your market update from @DColmanFX here:
  • Fed's Williams: - It wouldn't be a problem if reverse repo activity increased - It is impossible to predict when the Fed will be able to reduce its bond-buying program
  • Fed's Williams: - The Fed reverse repo facility is operating perfectly - Overnight reverse repo is running perfectly
  • Fed's Williams: - The Federal Reserve is "talking about talking about" slowing asset purchases - Employers perceive a tight job market, but this does not imply full employment
  • Fed's Williams: - I predict a moderate market response to the Fed's policy meeting - Following the FOMC, there was no minor taper tantrum
  • Fed's Williams: - We see the dangers on both sides in terms of employment and price stability - Money market rates are under increasing downward pressure
  • Fed's Williams: - The average inflation target is not based on any methodology - We have taken note of the significant increase in reverse repo usage
  • Fed's Williams: - The Fed's adjustments to administered rates were about keeping the fed funds rate within the target range - Regulators should pay attention to money market funds since they have been in trouble in the past
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.95% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.84% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.82% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.55% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.45% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.10% View the performance of all markets via
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 1.06% Silver: 0.61% Oil - US Crude: -0.14% View the performance of all markets via
British Pound (GBP) Latest: Weakness Ahead, Rate Decision Evenly Balanced

British Pound (GBP) Latest: Weakness Ahead, Rate Decision Evenly Balanced

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

GBP price, Brexit news and analysis:

  • The chances of a quarter-point rate cut to 0.5% by the Bank of England are evenly balanced, with the market-implied probability of a reduction at 53.3%.
  • Either way, GBP/USD is now in a well-defined downtrend meaning that, from a technical perspective, it is likely to weaken further once the initial volatility has subsided.

GBP/USD at risk of further losses

Traders in Sterling need to keep a close eye this session on the interest rate decision by the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, due at 1200 GMT. Judging by the overnight index swaps market, the probability of a quarter-point cut in UK Bank Rate to 0.5% is 53.3%, just above the 46.7% for no change.

This means volatility in GBP is likely immediately after the decision but, as the chart below shows, GBP/USD has been trending lower for the past week, suggesting that once the dust settles it will most likely resume its decline.

GBP/USD Price Chart, One-Hour Timeframe (January 24 - 30, 2020)

Latest GBP/USD price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

A rate cut had been widely expected due to UK economic weakness but the latest purchasing managers’ indexes were more positive, with the manufacturing PMI rising in January to its highest since April last year and the services PMI to its highest since September 2018.

At the last meeting chaired by Mark Carney, this improvement will therefore have to be weighed against a possible global economic downturn caused by the coronavirus and uncertainty about the course of the EU-UK trade talks once Brexit takes place tomorrow, Friday, at 2300 GMT.

The BoE will also have looked at its staff’s growth and inflation forecasts, to be revealed in the latest quarterly Inflation Report, and the decision is unlikely to be unanimous either way. This will mean that any forward guidance from the Bank will be particularly important, with a “hawkish cut” or a "dovish hold” both possible.

We look at Sterling regularly in the DailyFX Trading Global Markets Decoded podcasts that you can find here on Apple or wherever you go for your podcasts

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.