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US Dollar Gyrates after Consumer Confidence Miss

US Dollar Gyrates after Consumer Confidence Miss

Thomas Westwater, Analyst

Consumer Confidence - Talking Points

  • Consumer Confidence declined to 126.5 for December with the previous month being revised up to 126.8
  • The release on consumer confidence was preempted by news on the US-China trade front where President Trump stated that ‘phase-one’ of the highly anticipated trade deal would be signed January 15th at the White House
  • The present situation index increased to 170.0 on upbeat labor market conditions, but the short-term outlook decreased as consumers worry about their income prospects

The US Dollar is trading back near it’s overnight lows after an upward move spurred by news on the trade war front briefly sent the dollar higher in the early morning hours. The USD was trading at the 96.49 mark before moving lower as the consumer confidence figure from the Conference Board showed a decline for December, coming in at 126.5, down from 126.8 in the previous month.

The present situation index, which is based on consumers’ assessment on current labor market conditions and current business conditions increased to 170.0 from 166.6. However, the expectations index, which is based on the short-term outlook for income and labor market conditions decreased from 100.3 in November to 97.4 for this December.

US Dollar Basket (DXY) Price Chart – 3 Minute Time Frame

DXY 3-Min Chart

While market participants remain keenly focused on trade war headlines, sentiment and confidence indicators for the US should begin to move more into focus as tensions between China and the US continue to ease. So far, markets have weathered several headwinds in 2019, but as we move into the year ahead there are several prominent threats that could pose risks to the markets.

Emplyment Trends vs NFP Conference Board

Even as the US labor market continues to show strength, concerns around the labor market are starting to manifest. The percentage of consumers expecting more jobs for the months ahead decreased from 16.5% to 15.3% in the survey and those expecting a rise in their short-term income decreased to 21.1% from 22.9%. The December Non-farm payrolls report is set to release on January 10th with 266k jobs expected to be added.

--Written by Thomas Westwater, Intern Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Thomas on Twitter @FxWestwater

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