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  • $EURUSD support test at the big fig 1.2000 made a bit less exciting by the incursion earlier in February, but interesting setup given Panetta remarks https://t.co/se9gUAxYt2 https://t.co/r8uTrWm1a6
  • ECB's Panetta: - Should not hesitate to increase purchases and to spend the entire PEPP envelope or more if needed - Eventually, commitment to steering the yield curve may allow us to slow purchases - Must establish that unwarranted tightening will not be tolerated #ECB $EUR
  • ECB's Panetta - The steepening in the nominal GDP-weighted yield curve we have been seeing "is unwelcome and must be resisted" #ECB $EUR
  • - The central bank should broadly identify what level of nominal yields it is aiming to achieve; tailor its purchases to achieve that level; and to be ready to intervene to the extent necessary #ECB $EUR
  • ECB's Panetta: - We need to anchor key financial variables like lending rates and the yield curve to support recovery and inflation #ECB $EUR
  • ECB's Panetta: - 2021 is still "a pandemic year" - Policy support will have to remain in place well beyond the end of the pandemic #ECB $EUR
  • 🇨🇦 GDP Growth Rate Annualized (Q4) Actual: 9.6% Expected: 7.5% Previous: 40.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-02
  • 🇨🇦 GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4) Actual: 2.3% Previous: 8.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-02
  • 🇨🇦 GDP MoM (DEC) Actual: 0.1% Expected: 0.3% Previous: 0.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-02
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/o1AZOCKS5W
Brexit Briefing: Nigel Farage's Election Strategy Backfires

Brexit Briefing: Nigel Farage's Election Strategy Backfires

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

GBP price, Brexit news and analysis:

  • As Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the leader of the main opposition Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn continue to slug it out ahead of Thursday’s UK General Election, support for Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is waning.
  • As for Sterling, concern is growing that a surprise election result could send it tumbling now that an overall majority for Johnson’s Conservative Party is priced in to the markets.

GBP at risk of setback

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party looks to be in trouble ahead of Thursday’s UK General Election, with support for it down to around 3% in the opinion polls – a level that could leave it with no seats in the Westminster Parliament. The clear implication is that Farage’s decision not to stand candidates in the 317 seats won by the ruling Conservatives in 2017 has backfired as UK Prime Minister Boris continues to repeat his Get Brexit Done mantra.

UK General Election Preview: Everything You Need to Know

This has undermined the Brexit Party’s raison d'être, with the electorate seemingly convinced that Johnson will agree a trade deal with the EU and then leave the bloc at the end of 2020. Currently, the latest polls suggest the Conservatives have a lead of between 6% and 14% as Labour’s focus on the National Health Service seems to have failed to gain traction.

GBP/USD Price Chart, Hourly Timeframe (November 8 – December 10, 2019)

Latest GBP/USD price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

Brexit Glossary - Brexit Jargon and Terms Explained

In the markets, the surge in GBP/USD over the past month implies that an overall majority for the Conservatives is now fully priced in. That, in turn, suggests that if the ruling party fails to win that majority, the pair could drop sharply once the results are known in the early hours of Friday morning.

Brexit Timeline – The Path Ahead

We look at Sterling regularly in the DailyFX Trading Global Markets Decoded podcasts that you can find here on Apple or wherever you go for your podcasts

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--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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