Gold Price Forecast:
- XAUUSD has fallen over -5% since its recent high on September 4
- The metal’s break beneath support, around $1484, saw it pierce the 50-day moving average
- Still, ETF holdings of the metal remain robust which could help keep gold prices afloat
Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD Grasps for Support Near 2-Month Low
The price of gold slipped beneath support around the $1484 area on Monday after early price action saw selling gain pace. Since gold’s recent peak on September 4, the precious metal’s price has declined nearly -5% as investors look to take profit from the recent rally - alongside a downtick in risk aversion. Now, bulls will look for subsequent support to help stem the bleeding as the precious metal trends toward 2-month lows beneath the 50-day moving average.
Gold Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (February 2018 – September 2019)
To that end, subsequent support may reside around $1450 which coincides with various swing highs from June to August. Similarly, an ascending trendline from the series of higher lows during the same period could potentially provide another form of support in the $1450 area. If the two technical barriers are broken, gold could look to pressure $1380 where the 38.2% Fibonacci level - formed by the highs in September 2011 and the lows in December 2015 - rests. Further, the 200-day moving average could see gold threaten to form a death cross.
That said, gold enjoys a significant buffer before the 200-day moving average will come into play. With that in mind, the week ahead will see a deluge of commentary from Federal Reserve officials which possess the ability to sway gold's price. Any indication that the bank will be more dovish than currently forecasted could see gold’s price rebound as inflation expectations tick higher in response.
In the event of a bullish resurgence, prior support at $1484 will now look to stall a rebound higher. While gold may continue to climb over the longer-term, Monday’s bearish breakdown could give rise to further consolidation in the short-term. In the meantime, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for further updates and analysis.
--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX
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