US Dollar Drops as ISM Manufacturing Sinks to Lowest Since January 2016
ISM Manufacturing Talking Points:
- The US Dollar dropped along with Treasury yields as the ISM survey showed the US Manufacturing sector contracting
- Trade war issues remain a concern among participants and firms are reporting a continued shift in their supply chains away from China
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The Institute of Supply Management released their manufacturing PMI report Tuesday morning, which revealed that US manufacturing is facing a contraction after the economic indicator crossed the wires at 49.1 – the lowest level since January of 2016. Survey participants continue to note concerns about trade issues between the US and China with firms saying they are shifting their supply chains out of China; these difficulties are highlighted by the strong contraction in new export orders.
US Dollar Index (DXY): 15 – Minute Time Frame (Sept 3)
The US Dollar gave up some of its recent gains on the release of the report, slipping from 99.23 to a low 98.97. This comes after the Dollar climbed to a fresh two-year high of 99.37. US Treasury yields also dropped on the report with the 10-Year yield slipping from 1.5073% to 1.4355% as the figure pushed investors into a risk-off mood and re-accelerated Fed rate cut bets. The market’s response to the report was broad as stock prices were also hit with the S&P 500 Index dropping from 2908.8 to 2892.2. The markets now await the highly anticipated US NFP report this Friday with an expected figure of 162k jobs being added for the month of August.
The ISM report paints a gloomy picture for the US Economy as new orders, production, and employment are all seen contracting. Sentiment in the survey hit the lowest point in 2019 with one respondent saying, "While business is strong, there is an undercurrent of fear and alarm regarding the trade wars and a potential recession." Sentiment may not see any significant recovery until the United States and China iron out a deal, which as of now seems unlikely.
--Written by Thomas Westwater, Intern Analyst for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Thomas on Twitter @FxWestwater
DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.
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