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US Yield Bounce Soothes Some Market Fear, Risk Appetite Still on Edge

US Yield Bounce Soothes Some Market Fear, Risk Appetite Still on Edge

2019-08-19 05:07:00
David Cottle, Analyst
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APAC Stocks, Talking Points:

  • Stocks rose across the region
  • Hopes for German fiscal largesse bolstered risk taking
  • The US Dollar held up against major rivals

Join our analysts for live, interactive coverage of all major economic data at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

Asia Pacific stock markets saw strong broad gains on Monday. A rise in Treasury yields provided the broad backdrop but some individual good-news stories also lifted heavyweight names.

Sentiment showed a marked improvement after Wall Street stood taller on Friday and Germany’s government was reported to be ready to loosen tight fiscal constrictions, setting aside balanced budget rules to stimulate a slowing economy.

Markets had taken fright last week when the US Treasury market seemed to be sending reliable recession signals. However, the news from Berlin has played a part in raising risk appetite. Sure enough those US yields are higher across the board. It must be noted however that this apparent German change of heart comes very late in the cycle and that the German economy has already chalked up one quarter of contraction

The Nikkei 225 was up 0.7% in the middle of its Monday afternoon, with gains of more than 1.5% seen for both the Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng. The ASX 200 rose 0.8%.

Chinese tech giant Tencent saw strong gains as analysts have kept faith in its prospects despite a recent revenue disappointment. Australia’s big-four banks started the week on a strong note, as did Lendlease Group. Its stock rose despite news of a 41% decline in full year net profit. Poor as this was, it was far better than markets had expected.

On the currency front the Japanese Yen weakened as haven assets lost some of their allure. USDJPY has bounced notably having hit lows not seen since March 2018, with the exception of early January’s spurious ‘flash crash.’

US Dollar Vs Japanese Yen, Daily Chart

The bulls have managed a reasonable defensive action since but the pair looks to be topping out around early-August’s highs and a reteracement of the sharp falls seen since July 31 still seems a very tall order.

Still, more broadly the US Dollar remained close to the two-week highs reached on Friday against a basket of its most widely traded rivals.

This week will see plenty of likely market moving events but the biggest is likely to be the annual symposium held at Jackson Hole, Wyoming under the auspices of the Kansas City Federal Reserve. With overall Fed Chair Jerome Powell leading the usual roster of monetary heavyweights, the week is likely to see quite cautious market action until the last delegate has spoken.

APAC Stocks, Resources For Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

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