News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Join analyst @DavidJSong at 6:30 PM ET/10:30 PM GMT for your weekly update on key news trading events. Register here:
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am ET on DailyFX!
  • A “PIP” – which stands for Point in Percentage - is the unit of measure used by forex traders to define the smallest change in value between two currencies. Learn how to understand pips in forex here:
  • #Crudeoil prices could reverse lower as the #OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) forecasts fading global demand and oversupply concerns. Get your #commodities update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • The outlook for the $EURUSD pair has worsened after its failure to move back to the high just above 1.20 touched on September 1 despite the #ECB’s decision earlier this month not to talk down the Euro. Get your #currencies update from @MartinSEssex here:
  • #USDollar Outlook Bearish on Mnuchin & Powell Testimonies, Key US Data ⬇️
  • The London trading session accounts for around 35% of total average forex turnover*, the largest amount relative to its peers. The London forex session overlaps with the New York session. Learn about trading the London forex session here:
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here:
  • The Japanese #Yen may continue to exhibit a bullish behavior as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) appears to be in no rush to alter the path for monetary policy. Get your #currencies update from @DavidJSong here:
  • The New Zealand Dollar appears poised to extend its climb against its haven-associated counterparts as long-term trend break hints at cyclical upturn. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
EURUSD Price Outlook Poor on Slow Growth, Lagarde Nomination

EURUSD Price Outlook Poor on Slow Growth, Lagarde Nomination

2019-07-03 09:30:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

EUR price, news and analysis:

  • Eurozone purchasing managers index data for June suggest only minimal economic growth in the region.
  • Moreover, Christine Lagarde, who has been nominated to be the next President of the European Central Bank, is regarded as a monetary policy dove.
  • Taken together, that suggests further short-term losses for the Euro.

EURUSD price outlook: further weakness possible

The final Eurozone composite purchasing managers index (PMI) edged ahead to 52.2 in June, better than both the “flash” reading of 52.1 and May’s final 51.8. However, that still suggests minimal economic growth in the bloc.

The June PMI surveys indicate that the pace of Eurozone economic growth picked up at the end of the second quarter, though it would be wrong to get overly excited by the upturn,” commented Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the data.

The survey is indicative of GDP merely rising by just over 0.2% in the second quarter, and a deterioration of business expectations for the year ahead to one of the lowest seen for over four years suggests the business mood remains sombre. Downside risks to the outlook prevail amid trade war worries, rising geopolitical uncertainty and slowing global economic growth,” he added.

The PMI data in full are shown in the following table from the DailyFX calendar:

June PMI data

Lagarde seen as monetary policy dove

Meanwhile Christine Lagarde, who has been nominated for the position of President of the European Central Bank (ECB), will likely continue with the dovish policy stance of current chief Mario Draghi. Subject to approval by the European Parliament, Lagarde will succeed Draghi when his term expires at the end of October.

Lagarde, a French lawyer and politician, is currently Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund and was previously French Finance Minister. She is not an economist or monetary policy expert.

Taken together, Lagarde’s nomination and the PMI data suggest that EURUSD could continue to fall short-term within the upward-sloping channel on the charts.

EURUSD Price Chart, Hourly Timeframe (June 7 – July 3, 2019)

Latest EURUSD price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

For the Euro outlook longer-term, check out our latest free forecasts for Q3 here

Meanwhile, the prospect of a trade war between the US and the EU over aircraft subsidies could also damage Euro sentiment, although EURUSD is likely to be driven later this week by the US non-farm payrolls data.

Resources to help you trade the forex markets:

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you:

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.