News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/5uSWKoLkd6 https://t.co/YAtLZ9lqNi
  • EU's Barnier says he remains determined for a Brexit deal $GBP
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Composite PMI Flash (SEP) Actual: 55.7 Expected: 56.3 Previous: 59.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-23
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash (SEP) Actual: 55.1 Expected: 56 Previous: 58.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-23
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash (SEP) Actual: 54.3 Expected: 54.1 Previous: 55.2 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-23
  • The London trading session accounts for around 35% of total average forex turnover*, the largest amount relative to its peers. The London forex session overlaps with the New York session. Learn about trading the London forex session here: https://t.co/UTWxbnNz7M https://t.co/txgNCgB5Y8
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Composite PMI Flash (SEP) due at 08:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 56.3 Previous: 59.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-23
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash (SEP) due at 08:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 56 Previous: 58.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-23
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash (SEP) due at 08:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 54.1 Previous: 55.2 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-23
  • 🇵🇱 Unemployment Rate (AUG) Actual: 6.1% Expected: 6.1% Previous: 6.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-23
AUDUSD Topside Limited as RBA Raises Risk of Near-term Rate Cut

AUDUSD Topside Limited as RBA Raises Risk of Near-term Rate Cut

2019-04-02 09:30:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

AUD Analysis and Talking Points

  • RBA Rate Decision Review
  • Markets Price in Near-term cut
  • Speculator Remain Bearish on AUD

DailyFX Q1 2019 Trading Forecasts for AUD

RBA Rate Decision Review

Overnight, the RBA kept interest rates unchanged at 1.50%, however, the Australian Dollar dipped in reaction to the more cautious statement. The central bank had implied a more flexible approach to monetary policy having highlighted that they will “continue to monitor developments and set monetary policy to support sustainable growth”. In regard to growth the RBA noted that GDP painted a soft picture, however, they remain optimistic over the labour. As such, Aussie jobs data remains key as to whether the central bank would provide a stronger dovish tone.

  • Australian Jobs Report to be released on April 18th

In the near-term AUDUSD topside looks to be somewhat limited with $3.7bln worth of vanilla options rolling off at 0.71 throughout the week, while the 50 and 100DMAs reside at 0.7118 and 0.7150 respectively. Key support remains situated at the psychological 0.70 handle.

Markets Continue to Price in Near-term cut

Given the continued challenges faced by Australia with inflation remaining support and growth deteriorating. Markets have continued to bring forward expectations of a rate cut with a 25bps cut fully priced in by August. However, for this to become realised, a pick-up in the unemployment rate would have to take place, alongside the continued weakness in growth.

AUDUSD Topside Limited as RBA Raises Risk of Near-term Rate Cut

Speculator Remain Bearish on AUD

Since the beginning of the year bearish bets on the Aussie have almost doubled with net shorts valued at $3.8bln, according to CFTC data. Much of the negative sentiment towards the Aussie has stemmed from the increasingly softer domestic outlook with the RBA providing a more cautious outlook.

AUDUSD Topside Limited as RBA Raises Risk of Near-term Rate CutAUDUSD Topside Limited as RBA Raises Risk of Near-term Rate Cut

AUD TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES