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FTSE 100 vs FTSE 250: How Brexit Vote Will Impact

FTSE 100 vs FTSE 250: How Brexit Vote Will Impact

2019-01-15 09:00:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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FTSE 100 Analysis and News

  • PM May Set to Lose Meaningful Vote
  • Brexit Vote Outcome to Determine FTSE Outperformer

See our Q1 forecasts to learn what will drive price action through the quarter

Meaningful Vote Defeat to Drag on FTSE 250

The focus today will be on the meaningful vote, in which PM May will be hoping to get her withdrawal agreement passed parliament. However, given the sizeable number of MPs against her deal, it is highly likely that Theresa May will fail to get her deal approved. As such, while the initial reaction could see the domestically exposed FTSE 250 underperform relative to the FTSE 100, much of this will depend on what happens next. As a reminder, a weaker GBP tends to benefit most of the international companies that make up the FTSE 100. The reason being is that 2/3 of the revenue generated among FTSE 100 companies are from overseas. Consequently, repatriated profits are worth more in Sterling terms when the Pound drops.

In the immediate aftermath of the Brexit referendum, the hardest hit sectors had been financials, housebuilders, retail, travel and leisure firms, falling on average by 21%.

Please add a description for the image.

Source: Refinitiv. Spread between the FTSE 250 and FTSE 100 over a 5-yr time frame.

Brexit Vote Outcome to Determine FTSE Outperformer

Vote Outcome

Likelihood

GBP Impact

FTSE Outperformer

May Wins

Least Likely

Most Bullish

FTSE 250

Narrow Loss (1-50 votes)

Likely

Slightly Bullish

FTSE 250 Marginally

Wide Loss (100+)

Most Likely

Bearish

FTSE 100

Brexit Schedule

0900: PM May meets with senior ministers

1030-1130: Amendments to be voted on will be made public

1245: Brexit debate to begin

1900: Brexit debate to end

2000-2100: Meaningful vote to take place

All times GMT

Results to follow

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KEY TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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