We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Dollar Price Outlook: $USD Technical Breakdown at Yearly Open Support - $DXY Levels - https://t.co/ZjMeUwZjLw https://t.co/0pZfe8Cxt3
  • Trump says we will be announcing an incentive with taxes soon $SPX
  • U.S. New York Fed Staff Nowcast for Q2 at -25.5%, previously -35.5% $DXY $SPX
  • I expect leaders to be cheerleaders for their economies, but President Trump saying the US recovery is "better than a 'V' - it's a rocket ship" definitely raises the bar for me
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.97% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.64% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.56% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.23% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.56% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.76% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/lmPKxB1EzP
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 3.08% Germany 30: 2.78% Wall Street: 2.77% US 500: 2.27% FTSE 100: 1.79% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/yQmQ8EWvTP
  • Trump says his views on trade deal with China have changed - BBG
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 4.29% Gold: -1.98% Silver: -2.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/8aR4gEMvpN
  • The Nasdaq ($NDX) has advanced along with most of its peers after the NFPs surprise, but it is notably lagging the enthusiasm of the Dow's and SPX's gap higher. Here is NDX overlaid with the NDX to SPX ratio in red https://t.co/MDxyPr0YAf
  • The Dow enjoyed its biggest bullish gap higher on the open since April 7th. A statement clearing the 200-day moving average. NFPs is back as a market mover https://t.co/DzE0h8AV5B
EURUSD Rises as Italy Backs Down on Budget

EURUSD Rises as Italy Backs Down on Budget

2018-11-26 10:20:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

EUR Analysis and Talking Points

  • Increasing Signs of Eurozone Slowdown
  • Budget Deficit Target Reduction

If you are trading the Euro, check out the quarterly forecast

Increasing Signs of Eurozone Slowdown

The German IFO survey dipped in-line with the recent ZEW and PMI figures, reducing hopes of a year-end rebound and instead providing increasing signs of a slowdown in the Eurozone amid the backdrop of political uncertainty (Brexit, Italy) and trade wars. Alongside this, the expectations component saw the largest drop, which in turn suggests that the slowdown is here to stay. However, the Euro has remained somewhat resilient thus far.

Budget Deficit Target Reduction

The Euro is notably firmer with Italian bond yields dipping after reports that the Italian government are discussing reducing the 2019 deficit target to 2-2.1% from the current 2.4% target. This was also followed by comments from Salvini who added that Brussels provided a positive feedback over potentially lowering its 2019 deficit target. That said, Italy’s Tria, Conte, Di Maio and Salvini are to meet at 18:30GMT in order to discuss the budget. On the back of this, the Euro has been lifted from 1.1330 to highs of 1.1380, while the Bund-BTP spreads drops below 300bps.

As a reminder, the EU had last week rejected Italy’s resubmitted budget and stated that they would press ahead with the “excessive deficit procedure”. However, if indeed the Italian government confirms it will reduce its budget deficit target then this increases the likelihood that it may be passed by the European Commission, thus providing support for the Euro as Italian bond yields drop.

EURUSD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (July-November 2018)

EURUSD Rises as Italy Backs Down on Budget

Chart by IG

On the topside, resistance is situated at 1.14 handle, before 1.1450, which marks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1815-1.1215 drop. Momentum indicators suggest that price action is to be relatively rangebound. On the downside, 1.13 support remains.

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.