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EURUSD Outlook Still Positive Technically After Mixed EU Forecasts

EURUSD Outlook Still Positive Technically After Mixed EU Forecasts

2018-11-08 10:30:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor

EURUSD price, news and analysis:

  • EURUSD is well placed technically to make further gains.
  • However, that technical strength was only partly reinforced Thursday by mixed reports on the Eurozone economy from the European Commission and the European Central Bank.

EURUSD technical analysis

EURUSD remains in the uptrend that has been in place since the end of last month and, despite losses late Wednesday, is well positioned to climb higher within the rising channel that has taken it from a low of 1.1302 on October 31 to its current level around 1.1425.

EURUSD Price Chart, Hourly Timeframe (October 31 – November 8, 2018)

Latest EURUSD price chart.

Chart by IG

Despite continuing concerns about the dispute between Italy and the EU over the Italian budget, a rally back towards channel resistance above 1.15 is now possible and the downside should be limited near-term by channel support just above 1.14 and then at the 1.1302 October 31 low.

Traders looking to buy the pair might therefore wish to take profits if the 1.15 level is reached and place a stop at 1.13 to limit losses in case the price slides lower.

European Commission forecasts

Fundamentally, the outlook for the Eurozone economy is mixed according to reports issued Thursday by the European Commission and the European Central Bank, which remains on course to tighten Eurozone monetary policy in due course.

The Commission forecast that Eurozone economic growth will reach 2.1% this year but will then ease to 1.9% next year and 1.7% in 2020. The Commission is concerned about US economic policies and Brexit, as well as Italy’s spending plans.

ECB Economic Bulletin

However, the ECB, in its latest Economic Bulletin, was more upbeat in its forecasts for the Eurozone economy. In a report that is essentially positive for the Euro, the Eurozone’s central bank said “the incoming information that has become available since the Governing Council’s monetary policy meeting in September, while somewhat weaker than expected, remains overall consistent with an ongoing broad-based expansion of the Euro area economy and gradually rising inflation pressures.

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--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

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