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NZD Hit As Business Confidence Tanks Again, Govt Respoonse Eyed

NZD Hit As Business Confidence Tanks Again, Govt Respoonse Eyed

David Cottle, Analyst


What's on this page

ANZ Business Confidence, New Zealand Dollar Talking Points:

  • ANZ’s confidence survey hit a new ten-year low in August
  • It has been in freefall since late 2017
  • NZD/USD took a hit, just as it was threatening the year’s long downtrend

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the New Zealand Dollar’s prospects right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page.

The New Zealand Dollar fell sharply Thursday as a survey of long-ailing business confidence hit new, ten-year lows.

August’s indicator from the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) has been in the doldrums since September 2017. It fell to -50.3 in August, the lender said, from a gloomy enough -44.9 in July. Fears that this malaise is become entrenched, and that it will weigh heavily on business investment, this week prompted the New Zealand Government to initiate a standing business advisory council to try and help lift spirits.

The latest survey shows just how much work it has to do.

The precise reasons for NZ Inc.’s utter misery can be quite hard to pin down. Fears of trade conflict and a slowing Chinese economy all play their part and, sadly for Wellington, don’t seem especially susceptible to domestic cures. Cutting regulation –and especially employment regulation- would also probably help, but the newish coalition government does not seem especially inclined that way. At least not yet.

NZD/USD took the survey pretty badly, falling below the 0.67 handle in short order and staying down.

NZD/USD Chart (5-minute)

The broader, daily NZD/USD chart remains dominated by the long downtrend in place for much of this year. Steady interest rate increases in the United States have eroded the New Zealand Dollar’s long held yield advantage, while the domestic Official Cash Rate is seen remaining at its 1.75% record low until at least the fall of 2019.

NZD/USD Chart (Daily)

Still, the current uptick in market risk appetite has enabled the pair to challenge the downside channel top seriously for the first times since late July. However, the kiwi remains to a large extent hostage to that appetite, and the next gloomy trade headline could be enough to send it lower once again.

It remains to be seen whether the ANZ survey was bad enough to see it back within the channel on a daily close. Watch out for that later Thursday. It could be key to near-term direction.

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter @DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.