News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.02% Silver: -0.10% Oil - US Crude: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/qKzhq3VVN3
  • Coinbase’s impending initial public offering could provide the necessary fuel for Bitcoin to push to fresh record highs in the coming days. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/twdu0zHY7m https://t.co/Bz8Go9K72L
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.07% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.03% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.02% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/A5TMlQSzQP
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: Australian Dollar Falls as Jobs Data Shows Decline in Full-Time Employment $AUD $USD #Australia Link: https://t.co/k…
  • $USDSGD broke under the key 1.3375 - 1.3389 inflection zone over the last 24 hours Took out the 50-day SMA as well, awaiting confirmation This may open the door to revisiting January lows, especially if US yields continue to lose upside momentum #Singapore #SGD https://t.co/pIXS201NhI
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.84%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 75.65%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/7WRQzbHU0c
  • $AUDUSD is dropping following the March employment report, which showed a decrease in full-time jobs. The RBA highlighted the pandemic's outsized impact on full-time employment in the Feb monetary policy statement. Full-time change: -20.8k Part-time change: +91.5k https://t.co/rlgjmjb9kP
  • Nasdaq 100 Retreats as Coinbase Falls, May Cast a Shadow on Hang Seng and ASX 200 https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/15/Nasdaq-100-Retreats-as-Coinbase-Falls-May-Cast-a-Shadow-on-Hang-Seng-and-ASX-200-.html https://t.co/ZvcDnwXQ4e
  • PBOC Conducts 150 billion Yuan of 1-year MLF at 2.95% - rolls over earlier MLF, TMLF with 150 billion Yuan MLF operations - BBG $USDCNH
  • 🇦🇺 Full Time Employment Chg (MAR) Actual: -20.8K Previous: 89.1K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-15
GBPUSD May Fall, Bank of England Set for Dovish UK Rate Rise

GBPUSD May Fall, Bank of England Set for Dovish UK Rate Rise

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

GBP price, news and analysis:

  • The Bank of England is expected to increase UK interest rates Thursday but signal caution further ahead.
  • Meanwhile, Brexit and UK politics will likely make further gains for GBPUSD difficult.

Our trading forecasts for Q3 have been published; you can find the GBP guide here.

Dovish UK interest rate rise expected

The Bank of England is set to increase UK interest rates to 0.75% from 0.50% Thursday but cautious comments from Governor Mark Carney and the possibility of some members of the Bank’s monetary policy committee dissenting from the decision will likely send GBPUSD lower.

The likelihood of a rate hike is now almost fully priced in to the markets, with a probability of 86.4%, but one or even two MPC members could vote to leave rates on hold and Carney could well strike a downbeat tone on Super Thursday, when the Bank’s decision is accompanied by the publication of its quarterly Inflation Report and a Carney press conference.

Probability of UK interest rate increase.

Source: Thomson Reuters

Meanwhile, both a difficult political backdrop, with UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s position still precarious, and ongoing concerns about Brexit could keep GBPUSD from climbing above the psychologically-important 1.32 level.

GBPUSD Price Chart, Hourly Timeframe (July 16-30, 2018)

Latest GBPUSD price chart.

Chart by IG

A survey by the broadcaster Sky shows 78% of UK citizens think the government is doing a bad job on Brexit, with British public opinion shifting sharply against it, and most people wanting a referendum to choose between the deal suggested by the government, no deal and remaining in the EU.

GBPUSD technical analysis

From a technical perspective, there is strong resistance around 1.32 not just because it is a round number. GBPUSD rejected that level twice on July 26 and a downward sloping trendline connecting the recent lower highs also comes in around that mark.

Moreover, retail traders are now 68% long and only 32% short GBPUSD. From a contrarian viewpoint, that suggests the outlook is bearish.

Resources to help you trade the forex markets

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you: analytical and educational webinars hosted several times per day, trading guides to help you improve your trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex. You can learn how to trade like an expert by reading our guide to the Traits of Successful Traders.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES