News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/E9ZmJvqO0z
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/fqxw1AoKc1
  • Gold snapped a two-week losing streak but keeps price within the broader August downtrend. These are the levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/B3Jct6mIBD https://t.co/xTGIM2hRBv
  • $GBPUSD continues to move higher, despite Friday’s weakness, as vaccination hopes continue to fuel positive sentiment despite ongoing lockdown fears and downbeat UK data. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/S8UoHzOwFN https://t.co/qI6UZdggvM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/6wxX6oQurn
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/w009tJEQZn
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/2AeO1AdD2M
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/INJz4NSugQ
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZX8cS https://t.co/qdrsi61CN8
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2021? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/IyQdfq29fz
Australian Dollar Weathers CPI Miss, Inflation Remains Below Target

Australian Dollar Weathers CPI Miss, Inflation Remains Below Target

David Cottle, Analyst

Talking Points:

  • Australian inflation remained stubbornly low in the first quarter
  • It also remained a whisker below the RBA’s target band
  • The Australian Dollar didn’t mind much, but has already been hit hard

Discover the #1 mistake that traders make so that you never have to copy them

The Australian Dollar wobbles sligthly on Tuesday after the release of official inflation data which missed expectations. It didn't move much, however, perhaps not surprisingly given the beating it has already suffered at the US Dollar's hands

Official Australian Consumer Price Index inflation for the first quarter of 2018 came in at 1.9% compared to the same period a year ago. The markets had expected a 2% gain, but the importance of this ostensibly modest miss was possibly exacerbated by the fact that an as-expected rise would have taken inflation back into the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2-3% target band for the first time since January, 2017. As it was inflation stayed below the line.

On the quarter the CPI rose by 0.4%, again below the 0.5% markets were looking for.

The RBA frequently cites inflation weakness as being behind some of its antipathy toward raising the key Official Cash Rate from its 1.50% record low. It can now continue to do so for at least another three months, until second-quarter CPI numbers become available. The Australian Dollar was already under some pressure from its rampant US cousin, which is finding support in turn from rising Treasury yields. The overall backdrop of a Federal Reserve still keen to raise interest rates while other central banks (including the RBA) hang back has survived this data point. AUD/USD wasn’t hit any further by the numbers but signally failed to gain on them either.

Australian Dollar Weathers CPI Miss, Inflation Remains Below Target

Australian interest-rate futures markets currently don’t price any increase to the record low, 1.5% official cash rate until well into 2019 – in stark contrast with prognoses for a still-hiking Fed. Trade and growth worries spurred by rising oil prices have also weighed on the Aussie.

Indeed, AUD/USD is now below the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of its rise from the lows of December up to January’s peaks, with little obvious strong support between it and a full negation of that rise. That would be seen on a fall to 0.7504.

Australian Dollar Weathers CPI Miss, Inflation Remains Below Target

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES