We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • #FTSE 100 and S&P 500 could have room for weakness ahead as the #CAC 40 attempts to climb towards key resistance. Get your European #equities update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/gepciUHqxT https://t.co/j1ONIxOoT7
  • Market snapshot: #AUD, #NZD edging slightly lower while US equity futures are trading mixed.
  • Update on #Cryptocurrencies #BITCOIN +3.19% #BITCOINCASH +1.80% #ETHEREUM +2.25% #RIPPLE +1.07% #LITECOIN +2.33%
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.0802 S2: 1.0883 S1: 1.0933 R1: 1.1014 R2: 1.1046 R3: 1.1127 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • So far this week, those fortunes have flipped as the Nasdaq is working on its second consecutive down-day while the Dow has, so far, rallied through both sessions. Get your #equities technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/uafQxTayEY https://t.co/7iGh15koeL
  • That was an impressive recovery from the #SP500 during the #WallStreet session. What's interesting to see is the pro-risk #AUD and #NZD being unable to capitalize nearly as much versus stocks. Could momentum be fading? #USD $AUDUSD $NZDUSD https://t.co/YBg6wzgG2i
  • The U.S. House passes the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act $FXI $USDCNH
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.25% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.20% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.16% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.27% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.43% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.60% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/WUkvzm2KzY
  • Silver has been beaten handily by gold in the rush to haven assets inspired by the contagion. However, the gold/silver ratio was rising steadily before this crisis and will probably continue to do so. Get your #silver market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/00DiZn6XZS https://t.co/ygkaj7nHr6
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.83% Gold: 0.06% Oil - US Crude: -2.72% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/fmPVQRIybZ
US AM Digest: Crude Oil Highest Since December 2014 on Geopolitical Tensions

US AM Digest: Crude Oil Highest Since December 2014 on Geopolitical Tensions

2018-04-11 13:29:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

Receive the DailyFX US AM Digest in your inbox every day before US equity markets open - signup here

US equity futures pointing to losses of 1% with the DJIA set to open lower by as much as 200 points. This follows the rising geopolitical tensions surrounding Syria, in which President Trump’s latest comments noted that US-led intervention through air strikes are coming.

US CPI: US inflation data for March largely in-line with market consensus, besides the month over month reading which slipped 0.1% compared with a modest 0.2% rise expected. Interestingly, average weekly earnings saw a noticeable rise to 0.9% from 0.6%. Ultimately, little reaction observed in the Dollar index or US equity futures. Focus now on the FOMC meeting minutes scheduled for 18:00GMT.

RUB: The Russian Ruble has endured a torrid time since the Trump administration announced new punitive sanctions on Russia on Fridayin response to alleged meddling in the 2016 US election. USDRUB has weakened over 12% with USDRUB surging from 57.50 to 65.00, which marks the highest level since November 2016. The view is that further sanctions on Russia may be on the way, which is likely to dent the already fragile Russian economy. Additionally, Russia’s involvement in Syria has also pressured the Ruble, with the US pledging ‘forceful’ action in response to suspected chemical attacks in Syria. This could potentially take shape in the form of US-led airstrikes; however, Russia has since warned that missiles from the US will be shot down, subsequently increasing the geopolitical tensions around the region. President Trump this morning added fuel to the fire after stating that strikes will be coming in Syria and Russia better get ready.

GBP: The Pound slipped this morning following a run of February data. UK Manufacturing, Construction and Industrial Production data printed below expectations with factory output declining for the first time since March 2017. Altogether, this data suggests that the Q1 UK GDP is likely to get off to a softer start, with recent PMI survey’s suggesting UK growth of around 0.3%. GBPUSD now trading at the mid-1.41s having tripped through the 1.4200 handle in the wake of the data. However, with the Bank of England expected the hike interest rates next month, this could keep Sterling supported.

Crude Oil: WTI and Brent surging over 1% this morning with the latter now trading at the highest level in over three years having hit a high of $71.96. Geopolitical risk premium seemingly returning for oil prices amid reports of a potential US-led airstrike in Syria, which would be in-line with the Trump administrations anti-Iran strategy. Another bullish impetus for oil markets came after the EIA forecast a slight reduction in US oil production, while also revising higher their oil demand estimates.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Wednesday, April 11, 2018 – North American Releases

US AM Digest: Crude Oil Highest Since December 2014 on Geopolitical Tensions

With a bulk of the US data out of the way, focus will be on the FOMC meeting minutes scheduled for release at 18:00GMT. At the March meeting, the FOMC hiked the Federal Funds Rate by 25bps to 1.50-1.75%, while the dot plot continued to show that the majority of members saw three rate hikes for this year, despite the Fed raising its view of the number of rate hikes across the forecast horizon (8 hikes from 7 hikes). Given the backdrop of trade wars and surging short term interest rates (Libor) stoking turbulence in financial markets and tightening credit conditions, investors will be placing close attention to any mention of these subject matters and its impact on the central banks outlook.

Elsewhere, Oil traders will be keeping an eye on the weekly DoE crude oil inventory report due out at 14:30GMT. As a reminder, yesterday’s API crude report showed a headline build of 1.758mln barrels against expectations of a 200k barrel drawdown. As is usually the case, attention will also be placed on US crude production, which last week rose 0.26% to 10.46mln bpd.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Wednesday, April 11, 2018

US AM Digest: Crude Oil Highest Since December 2014 on Geopolitical Tensions

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: US Crude Oil

US AM Digest: Crude Oil Highest Since December 2014 on Geopolitical Tensions

Oil - US Crude: Data shows 35.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.82 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 21.4% lower than yesterday and 3.4% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 37.9% higher than yesterday and 5.5% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil - US Crude-bullish contrarian trading bias.

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

Four Things Traders are Reading

  1. US Dollar Down, Gold Up as Trump Warns Russia and Syria” by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist
  2. Bitcoin, Ether, Ripple Charts Highlight Consolidation For Now | Webinar by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
  3. Sterling Falls after UK Factory Output Declined for the First Time Since March 2017” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  4. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple Short-term Charts Set Up for Another Dive?” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

The DailyFX US AM Digest is published every day before the US cash equity open - you can SIGNUP HERE to receive this report in your inbox every day.

The DailyFX Asia AM Digest is published every day before the Tokyo cash equity open - you can SIGNUP HERE to receive that report in your inbox every day.

If you're interested in receiving both reports each day, you can SIGNUP HERE.

-- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.