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Dollar Shrugs Off Mixed Import Prices and Declining Export Prices

Dollar Shrugs Off Mixed Import Prices and Declining Export Prices

Dylan Jusino, Contributor


Talking Points:

- Import prices rose by 0.1% MoM missing the 0.4% forecast, prices fell by -0.1% on a YoY basis

- Export prices fell as well coming in at -0.1%, missing the forecast at 0.3%

- The US Dollar largely ignored the trading data

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for upcoming economic data and for a schedule of live coverage see the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Mixed Import Prices and Falling Export Prices

This morning, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that headline import prices ticked up by 0.1% in December on a month-over-month basis. This comes after a much larger 0.8% rise in the previous month. The 10 basis point increase was attributed to higher fuel prices which offset a decline in nonfuel prices. However, the core print adjusted for fuel prices, fell by 0.2% after 0.2% increase in November. In addition, US export prices declined by 0.1% on a month-over-month basis. This follows a 0.5% percent advancement in November. The chart below reflects the month-over-month export and import changes in 2017 from the BLS report:

1-month import prices changes (MoM)

1-month export prices changes (MoM)

Import Prices

The import price index index has not recorded a monthly decline since July which was -0.2%. Overall, U.S imports increased 3.0% in 2017, following a 1.9% advance from the previous year. 2017 was the largest calendar-year increase since 2011 in which prices rose by 8.5%.

All Imports Excluding Fuel

As previously mentioned the price index for nonfuel imports fell by 0.1% inDecember, which is the first monthly decline since a July at -0.1%. In December, the decline was led bylower prices for foodsand beverages, consumer goods, and nonfuel industrial supplies and materials.In 2017, of the major import areas, only prices for automotive vehicles decreased.

Export Prices

December’s decline in the export price index marks the first monthly decline for the indexsince June at 0.1%. The drop last month was led by falling agricultural prices. In 2017, export prices increased by 2.6%after rising 1.3% in 2016. Last year’s marked the largest calendar-year advance since 2011 when the index

rose 3.6%.

Below is a list of economic releases that is having a limited impact on the US Dollar:

- USD Import Price Index (MoM) (DEC): +0.1% versus +0.4% expected, from +0.8% (revised up from +0.7% previous)

- USD Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) (DEC): -0.2% versus +0.1% expected, from +0.2%(revised up from +0.1% previous)

- USD Export Price Index (MoM) (DEC): +0.1% versus +0.3%expected, from +0.5% previous

See the DailyFX economic calendar for Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Chart 1: US Dollar Index 15-minute Chart (Wednesday, January 10, 2018 Intraday)

The chart above shows that the US Dollar Index shrugged off the mixed trading data from this morning. Prior to the release, DXY traded at around 92.10. At the time that this was written, the US Dollar Index traded slightly lower at 92.04.

--- Written by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.