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The US Dollar continues to claw back losses from its first week of trading in 2018, working on its third consecutive up day as the Euro pullback gathers pace. Political risk for the US Dollar is quietly building behind the scenes, however, as US President Trump and Congressional Republicans negotiate with Congressional Democrats over an immigration bill (DACA, border wall, etc.) that could ultimately lead to a short-term government shutdown – a once unthinkable outcome given that one party is in singular control of the federal government.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Tuesday, January 9, 2018 – North American Releases
The North American economic calendar is quiet this week, with only two ‘high’ importance events in total, both due out on Friday. On Tuesday, the calendar is rather sparse, with only Fed Governor Kashkari’s speech drawing any interest on the day.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Tuesday, January 9, 2018
IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: GBPUSD
Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Dec 28 when GBPUSD traded near 1.33732; price has moved 1.1% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.8% higher than yesterday and 6.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.8% higher than yesterday and 17.5% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBPUSD trading bias.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “U.S. Dollar Rally Drives Forward as Euro Correction Continues” by James Stanley, Currency Strategist
- “USD Rebound Gathers Pace but Still in ’Sell the Rally’ Mode” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
- “Ethereum Prices Jump in 2018; Rally Likely to Continue” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
- “EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: 3-Month Range Floor Support Exposed” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist
- “Trader Sentiment Suggests Bitcoin Slump will Continue” by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research
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