Never miss a story from Martin Essex

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Martin Essex

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Talking Points:

- Germany’s political leaders are about to try again to form a new coalition government.

- So far, the Euro has shrugged off the stalemate but it will likely suffer if there is no breakthrough soon.

Like to know about the Traits of Successful Traders? Just click here

Or New to Forex? That guide is here

So far, the Euro has held up well despite the continuing failure of Germany’s political leadership to form a new coalition government. However, if the stalemate continues for much longer it will likely come under downward pressure.

At the time of writing, a Google news search for “German coalition talks” makes depressing reading. The top few headlines include:

5 ways Germany’s coalition talks could come unstuck,

German parties at odds ahead of coalition talks,

Merkel resumes talks with SPD in hope of ending political stalemate,

Why the once-durable Merkel may not last much longer, and

Berlin political deadlock stymies Macron’s Eurozone plans.

Euro still in demand

With Euro traders concentrating on a weak US Dollar and the prospect of Euro-Zone monetary stimulus being reduced or even ended this year, the currency is still in demand and will likely strengthen further. But persistent political instability in the Euro-Zone’s largest economy could potentially undermine sentiment longer-term.

EUR/USD Price Chart Daily Timeframe (January 2, 2017 to January 4, 2018)

Euro at Risk From German Political Stalemate

Chart by IG

Worst outcome for the Euro

Perhaps the worst outcome for the Euro would be if the negotiations fail and a new Federal election is called. One columnist noted: “It is no longer absurd to suggest [UK Prime Minister] Theresa May could outlast [German Chancellor Angela] Merkel.”

However, Merkel is seen as the consummate dealmaker so the odds remain good that she will succeed in forming a new coalition and holding on the Chancellorship; an outcome that would likely be seen as positive for both the Euro and German stock prices.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

For help to trade profitably, check out the IG Client Sentiment data

And you can learn more by listening to our regular trading webinars; here’s a list of what’s coming up

Check out our Trading Guides: Several new ones are now available including Forex for Beginners, Building Confidence and Traits of Successful Traders