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DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Down for Second Time in Three Days

DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Down for Second Time in Three Days

2018-01-04 13:30:00
DailyFX Research,
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The US Dollar is trading lower for the second time in three days despite signs that tomorrow’s December US Nonfarm Payrolls report could be a very strong figure. In a sense, it seems that traders remain unmoved by recent economic data and yesterday’s December FOMC meeting minutes, given that March 2018 rate hike odds (per Fed funds futures) have hovered around 70% for the past month. It would appear that fiscal policy – mainly, the potential for an infrastructure spending bill – remains the key driver for the greenback.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Thursday, January 4, 2018 – North American Releases

DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Down for Second Time in Three Days

The big piece of data is already out of the way on the North American economic calendar, with the December US ADP Employment report showing a gain of +250K jobs versus +190K expected. This bodes well for tomorrow’s December US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which has shown a contemporaneous relationship with the ADP data over the past two years (since the reporting methodology was changed). Later today, energy inventories should catch traders’ attention given the sustained push higher by crude oil over the past month.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Thursday, January 4, 2018

DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Down for Second Time in Three Days

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: USDJPY

DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Down for Second Time in Three Days

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 58.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.39 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.8% higher than yesterday and 28.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.2% lower than yesterday and 11.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.

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