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The US Dollar is drifting higher as speculation builds that the US House and Senate will reconcile their tax bills over the next week or two, with the legislation ready to be signed before the books are closed on 2017. Yet even as US Treasury 2-year yields continue to push near-decade highs, the US Treasury 10-year yield has been stuck trading around 2.350% for almost the past three months. The flattening yield curve (2s10s spread down below 53-bps now) warns of a less favorable outlook for growth and inflation, something to keep in mind as we look into the FOMC’s December policy meeting in a week from today.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Wednesday, December 6, 2017 – North American Releases
The Bank of Canada meets later this morning to keep rates on hold at 1.00%. However, with rates markets only pricing in a 35% chance of a rate hike next month, it’s possible that a more hawkish BOC, particularly in light of Friday’s outstanding November Canadian jobs report, outlines plans for another rate rise sooner than what’s being priced-in. A bump in rate expectations would help the Canadian Dollar continue its strong run since the start of the month.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Wednesday, December 6, 2017
IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: USDCAD
Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page
USDCAD: Retail trader data shows 51.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.06 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.6% lower than yesterday and 24.3% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.9% higher than yesterday and 20.9% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDCAD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDCAD trading bias.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “Trading Outlook for Euro, AUD/USD, Yen-crosses, Gold & Silver” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “USD/CAD Looks to BOC to Catalyze Range Break” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
- “Silver Price Woes Deepen as Gold Sellers Finally Wake Up” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “USD/CAD Risks Further Losses on More Detailed BoC Exit Strategy” by David Song, Currency Analyst
- “GBP/USD – Is the Options Market Underpricing Brexit Uncertainty?” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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