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Australian Dollar Struggles to Hold Gains on Capex, Building Data

Australian Dollar Struggles to Hold Gains on Capex, Building Data

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Australian business investment rises in-line with estimates, building approvals soar
  • The Australian Dollar swung, seeming to reflect on the RBA’s firm policy posture
  • Is AUD/USD trying to resume its downtrend since early September? Could be…

Have a question about why the Australian Dollar did what it did? Join a Q&A webinar and ask it live!

The Australian Dollar struggled to hold on to some gains after in-line private capital expenditure data and better-than-expected building approvals data crossed the wires. Starting with the former, third quarter business investment rose 1.0 percent versus 1.0% expected. This would have been an improvement over the second quarter, but that statistic was revised higher from 0.8% to 1.1%, effectively making the fresh data uninspiring.

What was more impressive is that building approvals increased 18.4% y/y in October. This was higher than the 14.1% estimate and last month’s recording of 0.2%. That was the fattest pace of growth since September 2015, or just about more than 2 years ago.

Still, the Reserve Bank of Australia remains firm. Not only did it leave its cash rate unchanged at its record low of 1.50% in November, but the minutes of that announcement also added to the view that rates are going nowhere fast.

Australian Dollar Struggles to Hold Gains on Capex, Building Data

On a daily chart, AUD/USD seems to be pushing lower again, perhaps trying to continue its downtrend since early September. Follow through after a morning star pattern emerged recently seems to be lacking. Such a pattern doesn’t necessarily indicate that a reversal is upon us. One thing does seem to be more apparent; the falling trend line since September 20th appears to be doing a good job at keeping the Aussie at bay.

However, Aussie Dollar will confront some obstacles whether it continues lower or breaks higher. For one thing, the June 22nd low around 0.7534 was tested when the morning star pattern formed. Since then, AUD/USD bounced higher to retest former support now resistance around 0.7640. Unable to push through, the pair turned around and now faces the June 22nd low again.

A break below 0.7534 would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci extension at 0.7418. A reversal would see AUD/USD once again retesting resistance at the falling trend line. Pushing above that would put the former support now resistance around 0.7640 back in sight.

Australian Dollar Struggles to Hold Gains on Capex, Building Data

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