DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Stabilizes Quickly; Fed Speakers in Focus
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The US Dollar has stabilized after what appeared to be a two-day swoon yesterday, only for Wednesday’s sharp losses during the European trading session to be reversed by the time equity markets closed in New York. Price action has been limited thus far on Thursday, with traders’ attention momentarily shifting away from the progress of tax reform legislation to the slate of Fed speakers due up over the next two days – whose central theme will likely be that another rate hike is coming next month. Elsewhere, the Japanese Yen has pulled back as global equity markets have turned higher; USD/JPY has been following the US S&P 500 closely since the start of November.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Thursday, November 16, 2017 – North American Releases
The first half of the North American calendar is in the rearview mirror, and the data releases came and went without much of an impact on FX markets; no surprise there, given that there were no ‘high’ importance data due out. For the second half of the calendar, while there are a smattering of ‘low’ and ‘medium’ importance data and events, traders should only be focusing on one series of information: what the Fed speakers have to say throughout the day. Even though Fed funds futures markets continue to price in a 100% chance of a rate hike next month, there is still scope for Fed officials to perhaps color their otherwise hawkish commentary with noted concern that inflation could underperform their +2% medium-term target again soon.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Thursday, November 16, 2017
AUDUSD: Retail trader data shows 56.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.3 to 1. The number of traders net-long is unchanged than yesterday and 12.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.1% higher than yesterday and 17.0% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUDUSD trading bias.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “US Dollar Bias Shifts to Neutral as New Range is Carved Out” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
- “Silver & Gold Coiling Towards a Breakout, but in Which Direction?” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “Sterling to Remain Bid on New Brexit Optimism” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
- “British Pound May Fall as US Dollar Gains on BOE, Fed Comments” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist
- “AUD/USD Technical Analysis: 2017 Uptrend Under Fire” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist
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