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DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Loses Trend Support, CPI Does No Favors

DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Loses Trend Support, CPI Does No Favors

2017-11-15 14:29:00
DailyFX Research,
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The US Dollar’s losses are extending into a second day of sharp declines on Wednesday, with all of the gains from the October 26 ECB meeting officially wiped out per the DXY Index (and EUR/USD). Despite the fact that rates markets have priced-in a December hike at 100%, the greenback is losing ground as focus has shifted to progress over tax reform legislation, which has appeared increasingly disappointing in recent days. Elsewhere, with US equity markets turning lower and US Treasury yields dipping on safe haven demand, the Japanese Yen has proven resurgent overnight; we’re watching for a close below 112.95 in USD/JPY to signal that the series of higher highs and higher lows since September 8 has officially ended.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Wednesday, November 15, 2017 – North American Releases

DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Loses Trend Support, CPI Does No Favors

The bulk of data due out of North America on Wednesday is in the rearview mirror, with the October US CPI report showing price pressures are slowly starting to abate. Headline CPI fell to +2% from +2.2%, a move what is technically considered ‘disinflationary.’ Otherwise, core CPI was slightly better by a tenth of a percentage point. October US Retail Sales, the best proxy we have for consumption trends on a month-to-month basis, beat expectations only slightly as well. Later, September US Business Inventories are due, as well as an update to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q4’17 US growth forecast.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Wednesday, November 15, 2017

DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Loses Trend Support, CPI Does No Favors

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: USDJPY

DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Loses Trend Support, CPI Does No Favors

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 53.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.15 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Sep 27 when USDJPY traded near 112.881. The number of traders net-long is 9.4% higher than yesterday and 3.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.2% lower than yesterday and 20.9% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. “CPI, Retail, and Earnings Do Little to Move US Dollar” by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research and Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
  2. “CAC 40 Double Tops at Channel Line” by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M, Head Forex Trading Instructor
  3. “Technical Outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Cross-rates, Silver & More” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  4. “DXY Index Slammed Down to Key Support Ahead of US CPI, Retail Sales” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
  5. “EUR/USD Implied Volatility Pops as Euro Crashes Party for H&S Sellers” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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